News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • webinar starting right now - topics up for discussion today: 1. Did USD just top? 2. Resistance at prior support EUR/USD 3. How long might USD pullback run for? starting right now - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/455809179 https://t.co/didg11SWgq
  • Treasury Sec. nominee Yellen: Cryptocurrencies are of a particular concern for money laundering and terrorists financing. $BTC
  • Treasury Sec. nominee Yellen: Low interest rates are "likely for a long time." $USD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in AUD/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.53%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PRnsvqwD8B
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Haldane Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-19
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Italy PM Confidence Vote in Parliament due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-19
  • After a bout of strength drove $GBPJPY up over 60 pips early today, from 140.80 to above 141.40, the pair is currently consolidating around 141.50. $GBP $JPY https://t.co/JuzKLnoo5b
  • Risk appetite firms ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech, while equity markets are also braced with the upcoming US corporate earnings with Netflix reporting after the closing bell. Get your #equities market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/949m3eY2wB https://t.co/QMUABtli7s
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.39% Silver: 0.90% Gold: 0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/TD3yRs83zP
  • Forex Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.37% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.28% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/w8k6crbNv8
Oil Traders Need to Keep a Close Eye on Tropical Storm Harvey

Oil Traders Need to Keep a Close Eye on Tropical Storm Harvey

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Talking Points

- Traders in US crude oil need to keep a close watch on tropical storm Harvey as it nears Texas.

- By one estimate it could put a third of US refineries out of action if it hits the state.

Check out our Trading Guides: they’re free and have been updated, with several new ones now available including Forex for Beginners, Building Confidence and Traits of Successful Traders

Crude oil traders should monitor tropical storm Harvey carefully as it nears Texas. According to the US National Hurricane Center, it’s likely to bring multiple hazards including heavy rainfall, storm surge and possible hurricane conditions to portions of the Texas coast and, by one estimate, it could put a third of US refineries out of action if it hits the state.

Clearly, that could increase the price of US crude oil sharply even though it is currently showing signs of weakness.

Chart: US Crude Oil Daily Timeframe (April 17 – August 24, 2017)

Oil Traders Need to Keep a Close Eye on Tropical Storm Harvey

Chart by IG

That weakness has come despite news that US crude oil stocks fell last week for an eighth consecutive week to their lowest since January 2016, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Crude inventories fell 3.3 million barrels in the week ending August 18, broadly in line with expectations for a decrease of 3.5 million barrels.

However, the EIA report was offset by news that US oil production hit 9.53 million barrels per day last week, the highest level since July 2015 and up more than 13% from the most recent low in mid-2016.

From a technical perspective, the outlook for oil prices is positive but IG Client Sentiment data paint a slightly different picture. Retail trader data show 60.5% of traders are net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.53 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since August 14, when US crude traded near $47.76 per barrel; the price has moved 1.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.4% lower than yesterday and 9.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 29.7% higher than yesterday and 14.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests US crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed US crude trading bias.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

You can learn more about trading by listening to our regular webinars; here’s a list of what’s coming up

Like to know about the Traits of Successful Traders? Just click here

Or New to Forex? That guide is here

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES