News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @CGasparino: BREAKING -- @JoeBiden Admin is in the early stages of developing a regulatory approach to the booming crypto biz, sources t…
  • The US Dollar is in correction within the yearly uptrend with the decline now eyeing initial support objectives just lower. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.03% Gold: -0.29% Silver: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via
  • The Dollar ($DXY) has cleared both its 50-day SMA and the midpoint of the 2021 range. What has greater pull: its roll as wayward safe haven (vs inverted $SPX) or the recent fade in returns (US 10yr). The 20-day correlation to both approximately ~0.8, strong
  • US Dollar Index (DXY) trend from last March picking up steam again. February and January lows up next on radar, could take a few weeks. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • RT @ChadPergram: Biden now mtg w/bipartisan/bicameral mbrs about infrastructure. Says they're discussing "how to pay for it." Adds they "ho…
  • $WTI #Crude #Oil Price Outlook: Breakout Eyes Resistance- Bulls at Risk -
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.17% France 40: -0.21% FTSE 100: -0.21% Wall Street: -0.43% US 500: -0.63% View the performance of all markets via
  • A mildly positive start to the week for the British Pound as it extends last week’s rally. The partial re-opening of the UK economy is giving Sterling a helping hand. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here:
US Dollar Rebound Fizzles Out after July Inflation Report Falls Short

US Dollar Rebound Fizzles Out after July Inflation Report Falls Short

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points

- The miss on the inflation report comes just weeks after Fed raised concern about inflation undershooting at its July FOMC meeting.

- Improving labor markets and record high confidence levels have done little to bolster demand, push inflation higher.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

After an all-around solid July US Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday, it appeared that some momentum may have been gathering for economic data to stabilize and the US Dollar to hit the brakes on its decline. Yet the US Dollar can’t seem to catch a break as the US economy can’t seem to string together several strong data releases in a row.

Headline CPI actually gained to +1.7% from +1.6% (y/y), but it fell below expectations of a +1.8% reading (y/y). Core inflation wasn’t any better, also at +1.7% (y/y). These figures remain below the Fed’s +2% medium-term target, and echo the concerns the Fed raised at its July FOMC meeting.

The data comes against the backdrop of a Federal Reserve looking for more evidence that the US economy is moving along in the right direction before it announces its next rate hike. Persistent underperformance in inflation could ultimately lead to the Fed delaying its rate hike and balance sheet normalization plans later on this year.

The data today has had animpact on interest rate expectations, with March 2018 Fed rate hike expectations falling signficantly over the past five days. At their peak this week, Fed funds futures contracts were pricing in a 58% chance of a 25-bps by March; after today’s data, March rate hike odds are below 53%.

Here are the data driving the US Dollar this morning:

- USD Consumer Price Index (JUL): +1.7% versus +1.8% expected, from +1.6% (y/y).

- USD CPI ex Food & Energy (JUL): +1.7% as expected, unch (y/y).

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Friday, August 11, 2017

Chart 1: DXY Index 1-minute Timeframe (August 11, 2017 Intraday)

US Dollar Rebound Fizzles Out after July Inflation Report Falls Short

Following the inflation report missing on the headline, the US Dollar was hit across the board. The Dollar Index (DXY) dropped from 93.45 to as low as 92.99 following the release, and was trading back at 93.12 at the time this report was written. Similarly, EUR/USD jumped from near 1.1765 to above 1.1810, and USD/JPY dropped from near 109.20 to below 108.70 briefly.

With a dry calendar the rest of the day into the weekend, attention will turn to the newswires where tensions continue to build between North Korea’s Kim Jung-Un and the United States’ Donald Trump.

Read more: Global Risks Jump as USD/JPY Cracks, S&P 500 Marks Key Reversal

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mailcvecchio@dailyfx.comFollow him on Twitter at@CVecchioFXTo be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list,please fill out this form

View our long-term forecasts with theDailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.