News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/1zuPdKUmyE
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/qFpg0DCxxL https://t.co/quQxg4WBy3
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/vRUVxvQP8o https://t.co/cUEkW9BfIP
  • Is investing in your favorite brand or buying its products the better financial move? Read the article for a breakdown. https://t.co/iWOlDAK8cD https://t.co/0uS5VvWj12
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/PW5pCw9dKR
  • The Japanese Yen has been making a comeback, but it may soon resume its decline against the US Dollar as USD/JPY consolidates within a bullish Falling Wedge. Watch for a breakout. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zxRWoNR4lS https://t.co/bXTx0TSRmU
  • BTC/USD treading water sideways, 28600 the big level to watch. ETH/USD working on forming a nice-looking descending wedge. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/H1qOV4FR1P https://t.co/tjutUl7Nt7
  • Gold hasn’t been very active the past few sessions, but that could change next week and provide a stronger trading bias. Get your weekly gold technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/HaEe3i4Sug https://t.co/LsARS2mnFI
  • Market uncertainty sees GBP pairs break out of their ranges. Get your weekly GBP forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/IRO7a6Jv8J https://t.co/4LxWz7sOVF
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/AXKeEsin95
Risk-Off Sentiment to Continue but Beware of a Correction First

Risk-Off Sentiment to Continue but Beware of a Correction First

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Talking Points

- While the confrontation between the US and North Korea continues, the flight to safety will likely pick up speed.

- But beware of a correction in the markets before current trends return.

Check out our new Trading Guides: they’re free and have been updated for the third quarter of 2017

Assets seen as boltholes for risk-averse investors, such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and gold, remained in demand in Europe Friday, while “risk-on” assets such as stock markets and the Australian Dollar were sold. However, the key question for traders now is whether these trends will continue as the US and North Korea ramp up the aggressive language or whether profit-taking will soon begin.

Truth is, the move towards safe havens has been relatively small so far. The S&P 500 index of US stocks closed down just 1.4% Wednesday and is still above where it traded a month ago. The gold price is no higher than it was in early June.

The VIX measure of US stock volatility is still lower than it was late last year and positions in VIX futures are now net short. Even high-yield bonds, which have led the way lower for stocks and fallen sharply, are only back to where they were in April – and the spreads between emerging-market bond yields and those of the developed countries remain historically low.

Chart: SPDR Barclays High-Yield Bond ETF Daily Timeframe (Feb 2017 to Date)

Risk-Off Sentiment to Continue but Beware of a Correction First

Chart by IG

This implies that the current “risk-off” sentiment could continue for a while yet even though there could be some profit-taking, dip-buying and bottom-fishing before the current trends resume – particularly if the two combatants tone down their belligerent rhetoric.

However, one haven currency, the Japanese Yen, looks to have been mispriced. As I explained here, buying the Yen when Japan lies on the direct route from North Korea to the threatened US island territory of Guam makes little sense – yet so far it has kept pace with the Swiss Franc.

Chart: CHF/JPY Daily Timeframe (May 2017 to Date)

Risk-Off Sentiment to Continue but Beware of a Correction First

Chart by IG

Traders should therefore be wary of market corrections but the current trends look set to continue, particularly if the talk of “bubbles” in some assets like credit begins to grow louder.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

For help to trade profitably, check out the IG Client Sentiment data

And you can learn more by listening to our regular trading webinars; here’s a list of what’s coming up

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES