We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • López Obrador hopes #USMCA will help tighten trade relationships between the US and Mexico. Get your currencies market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/bZrUKSCGaS https://t.co/MZ7UoiWWRj
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
  • Crude #oilprices may face heightened liquidation pressure as the cycle-sensitive #commodity finds itself under the pressure of resilient resistance and a vulnerable, multi-week rising channel. Get your crude #oil market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/cGPX4qcOH1 https://t.co/0U4JMJVFuf
  • The @ecb will likely boost its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program at Thursday’s meeting of its Governing Council; a move that could give the #Euro a lift. Get your currencies market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/I4PbmJNG1z https://t.co/hu6Ld1KdDB
  • $GBPUSD doesn’t have the cleanest set of technical indications, but #USD may give indications if it can break its trading range via the $DXY. Get your currencies market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/PrC9wAaXvU https://t.co/vHYHflwqR3
Gold Capped but US Inflation Data May Push Prices Lower

Gold Capped but US Inflation Data May Push Prices Lower

2017-08-08 09:51:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

- Gold struggles to regain last Friday’s NFP-losses as the US Dollar stabilizes near its recent lows.

- Traders will look to Friday’s inflation report for the next short-term movement.

Check out our new Trading Guides: they’re free and have been updated for the third quarter of 2017.

After falling sharply after the release of last Friday’s strong-than-expected NFP release, gold has struggled to make any decent headway as the US dollar sentiment changes from negative to neutral. Friday’s fall took the precious metal out of its previous upwards channel and any further strength in the USD may see the 100-day ema, currently at $1248.7/oz, as a possible target. With Friday’s consumer price index expected to tick-up to 1.8% from last month’s 1.6%, any upside beat will push bond yields higher and make gold as an asset class less attractive.

Gold Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (April – August 8, 2017)

Gold Capped but US Inflation Data May Push Prices Lower

Chart by IG

The US dollar in contrast may be looking at short-term support after this year’s heavy falls. The US Dollar Index has lost over 10% since the start of the year – from 103.8 to 93 - on a lack of fiscal clarity and action by US President Trump and a resurgent Euro. The strength of the EUR however is now presenting ECB President Draghi with its own problems as it weighs on inflation in the single bloc. The ECB’s head is still committed to get inflation up to the central bank’s target of around 2%, from a current level of 1.3%, increasing expectations that the current loose monetary policy will remain in place for longer than originally thought.

Those however who believe that gold has further upside potential will take heart from the recent IG Client Sentiment indicator – a contrarian view to crowd sentiment - which highlights that the current price trend may reverse higher despite retail traders remaining net-long. While data shows 62.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.63 to 1, the percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Mar 31 when it traded near $1248.9/oz.However sentiment may be changing with the number of traders net-long 1.1% lower than yesterday and 11.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 25.3% higher than yesterday and 45.2% higher from last week.

Why and how do we use the IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.