News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Silver price action stalls between Moving Averages. Platinum prices currently confined by Fibonacci Support. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:
  • US Markets at the Close $NDX 12464.0 -1.73% $SPX 3768.49 -1.34% $DJI 30924.14 -1.11%
  • USD/JPY stronger during trade, now pushing towards 108 level $USDJPY
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.02% US 500: -0.03% Germany 30: -0.52% FTSE 100: -0.53% France 40: -0.71% View the performance of all markets via
  • USD/CAD put in a test at the 1.2500 psychological level last week, but bulls following the falling wedge for topside breakouts may have to wait for a bit longer. Get your $USDCAD market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Gold continues its decline, now trading below $1,700 $XAUUSD
  • $USDJPY in full on bull mode longer-term, a really strong breakout from the falling wedge formation
  • USD/CHF sharply higher, extending recent gains
  • Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Holds Support as USD Drives $USDCAD
  • USD/RUB sharply higher as President Biden places sanctions on Russia $USD $RUB
Bullish Signals Pointing to Crude Oil Price Recovery

Bullish Signals Pointing to Crude Oil Price Recovery

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Talking Points

- Technically, the crude oil price is well placed to recover after breaking to the upside from a falling channel.

- Positioning data also suggest a rally after a long period of weakness.

- Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The price of crude oil is well placed to rally, with technical signals and positioning data both pointing to a recovery despite continuing weak fundamentals.

As can be seen from the US crude chart below, the price has been falling within a downward sloping channel for more than a month and reached its lowest level since August 11, 2016 last Wednesday, just above $42 per barrel. Since then, however, it has been recovering gently and has just broken to the upside above the resistance line connecting the successively lower highs, helped by a weaker US Dollar.

Chart: US Crude Oil (WTI) Daily Timeframe (April 2017 to June 27, 2017)

Bullish Signals Pointing to Crude Oil Price Recovery

Chart by IG

While several more sessions are needed for confirmation of the breakout, that trendline could now provide support, with the May 4 low just under $44 the most obvious near-term target.

This analysis is supported by positioning data reported by Reuters market analyst John Kemp. He notes that hedge funds and other money managers appear to have abandoned all hope that OPEC will rebalance the over-supplied market, slashing formerly bullish bets on crude futures and options.

Hedge fund managers cut their net long position in the three main futures and options contracts linked to Brent and WTI by 109 million barrels in the week to June 20, he reports, and funds have cut their net long position by a total of 161 million barrels over the last three weeks, taking it down to just 389 million barrels, the lowest since August 9 last year. Fund managers now hold just two long positions for every one short position, which ranks among the most bearish positions since oil prices started to tumble in the middle of 2014, Kemp reports.

At DailyFX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact that fund managers are more bearish suggests to us that crude prices could rally. Moreover, the latest IG Client Sentiment data show retail traders are less net long than yesterday and less than they were last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net long.

Bullish Signals Pointing to Crude Oil Price Recovery

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides; they’re free and updated for the second quarter of 2017

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.