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Chicago Fed Index Points to Slower US Growth in May

Chicago Fed Index Points to Slower US Growth in May

Martin Essex, MSTA,

Talking Points

- Chicago Fed National Activity Index drops to minus 0.26 from an upwardly revised 0.57.

- That was below economists’ predictions of a smaller decline to plus 0.2.

- Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in US national economic activity, has dropped to minus 0.26 from an upwardly revised 0.57 the month before – well below economists’ forecasts of a smaller decline to plus 0.2.

The data, generally overshadowed by the May durable goods orders data released at the same and which also came in below expectations, reinforce the message from the US purchasing managers’ indexes for June released last week. They too came in lower than expected, sending EUR/USD higher as they pointed to slower US economic growth in the months ahead.

This session, EUR/USD made further gains as the US Dollar weakened.

Chart by IG

“Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from April, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in May,” the Chicago Fed reported.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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