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GBP Finds Some Support in Latest ICM Poll

GBP Finds Some Support in Latest ICM Poll

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Talking Points

- Latest ICM poll shows the Conservative Party with a 12 point lead, down from 14 points last week.

- Some UK polls show UK ruling party with a lead of between 6-8 points.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

GBP/USD gained in excess of half-a-cent Tuesday after the latest UK voting intention poll giving the Conservative party a 12 point lead over Labour, albeit down from 14 points last week.

The poll by ICM for The Guardian showed the Tory party at 45%, down 2%, while Labour remained unchanged at 33%. A YouGov poll last weekend showed the difference between the two major parties narrow to 5 points, before widening again to 7 points, while the latest Survation poll put the difference between the two parties at 6 points.

According to ICM the shift in polling numbers is being attributed to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s populist policies, including the abolition of student tuition fees (normally GBP 9,000 a year) and the return to state funded grants, resonating with younger voters.

GBP/USD picked up Tuesday, after a long bank holiday weekend, to trade just under 1.2900 from Friday’s low of 1.2775. The British Pound has also bounced off the 50-dma and is within half-a-cent of breaking back above the 20-dma, another potentially bullish trigger.

Chart: GBP/USD Daily Timeframe (February 2 – May 30, 2017)

GBP Finds Some Support in Latest ICM Poll

Chart by IG

And the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, show retail investors remain short GBPUSD.

Retail trader data shows 42.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.37 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 12 when GBPUSD traded near 1.24853; price has moved 3.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 10.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.8% higher than yesterday and 4.0% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

GBP Finds Some Support in Latest ICM Poll

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

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