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Record German Trade Surplus May Fuel EUR Discord

Record German Trade Surplus May Fuel EUR Discord

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Talking Points

- Germany exported a record EUR118.2 billion in March.

- Record trade surplus shows a ‘one-size fits all’ currency is not working.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Chart: GBPUSD 5-Minute Timeframe (April 7, 2017).

Germany exported goods worth EUR118.2 billion in March, and imported goods worth EUR92.9 billion, both the highest ever figures recorded, according to provisional data from the Federal Stastics Office.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of EUR25.4 billion, while the current account balance showed a surplus of EUR30.2 billion. According to the figures, Germany exported goods to the value of EUR 68.0 billion to the member states of the European Union (EU), while it imported goods to the value of EUR61.1 billion from those countries.

The record trade surplus is likely to spark further critism of the level of the the single currency and its lop-sided effect between the South and North of the EU. Critics say that Germany is benefitting from the low level of the currency, while US President Donald Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro was more strident at the start of the year saying that Germany is using a ‘grossly undervalued euro’ to exploit the US and its EU partners.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday defended the country’s trade surplus saying reducing it would prove difficult. Merkel said that a part of the surplus ‘is linked to the quality of our products,’ while the level of the currency was determined by the ECB, ‘which we can’t influence.’

The EUR continue its post-Macron slide lower in early European turnover, touching a low of just over 1.09026 against the USD.

Chart: EURUSD One-Hour Timeframe (May 3 – May 9, 2018)

Record German Trade Surplus May Fuel EUR Discord

Chart by IG

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at Nicholas.cawley@ig.com

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