News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Wall Street Futures turned lower before European open: Dow Jones (-0.43%) S&P 500 (-0.45%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.63%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release!
  • [corr] All things considered, $USDSGD, $USDMYR, $USDPHP and $USDIDR failed to generate much upside momentum lately despite rising volatility in the #SP500 Could this continue from here? Check out my latest #ASEAN fundamental outlook here -
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here:
  • 🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence (SEP) Actual: -28.0 Previous: -29
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.44%, while traders in EUR/JPY are at opposite extremes with 63.92%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence (SEP) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -29
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.93% Germany 30: 0.92% FTSE 100: 0.64% US 500: 0.04% Wall Street: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via
  • #Gold and #Silver are at risk of extending their slide from monthly highs as the lack of additional fiscal stimulus and rising geopolitical tensions underpin #USD $GC $SI $SLV $GLD
US Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Three Years

US Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Three Years

2017-04-28 13:45:00
Dylan Jusino,

Talking Points:

- Gross domestic product missed projections for 1Q coming in at 0.7% versus 1.0% expected.

- Soft data prints did not lead to economic growth.

- Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Forecast comes close to print.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and for a schedule of live coverage see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The US economy grew at the slowest pace since 4Q 2016 as gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 0.7% versus 1.0% estimated. In accordance with GDP, personal consumption was also weak coming in at 0.3% versus 0.9% estimated. Core personal consumption expenditure came in flat at 2.0%.

The gross domestic product for the United States is a gauge of overall output of the US economy and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy. As GDP rises the economy expands signaling dollar strength. Contrarily, if the figure falls short of expectations or in line with the consensus it indicates a bearish signal for the dollar. Much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check.

The top contributors to the GDP print was personal consumption which declined 1.3% versus 1Q 2016, durable goods falling by 1.9% versus 1Q 2016, and government consumption which fell 3.3% versus in the same period last year. Durable good and personal consumption are particularly noteworthy because they indicate a decline in consumer spending. This proves that strong soft data does not translate into economic growth. While recent soft data prints (particularly in sentiment) have been unusually strong, consumer confidence recently slid from its 16 year high.

When tracking GDp, Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting tool came in much closer to the print at 0.2% versus New York’s Nowcasting tool predicting 1Q GDP at 2.64%. NY Fed missed the mark by a wider margin because they incorporate soft data prints into their forecast while Atlanta Fed does not. CME Group’s FedWatch tool predicts a 94.7% chance of the Fed holding rates in May, which is all but certain at this point. The Fed has a plethora of reasons to hold as they wait for prices and overall inflation to pick up.

Below is a list of data that has driven the US Dollar Index:

- USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q): 0.7% actual versus 2.1% previous

- USD Personal Consumption (1Q): 0.3% actual versus 3.5% previous

- USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q): 2.3% actual versus 2.1% previous

- USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ): 2.0% actual versus 1.3% previous

Chart 1: DXY 15-minute Chart (April28, 2017 Intraday)

US Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Three Years

Immediately following the data, US Dollar Indexrose despite GDP missing estimates.The US Dollar rallied to 99.07. At the time this report was written, the pair traded at 98.96.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.