Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
New Zealand Dollar Soars as CPI Data Fuels RBNZ Rate Hike Bets

New Zealand Dollar Soars as CPI Data Fuels RBNZ Rate Hike Bets

Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributing Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

  • New Zealand surged following better-than-expected CPI data
  • Prices rose 2.2% y/y versus 2.0% expected, highest since 2011
  • Front-end bond yields rose, hinting at firming RBNZ outlook

Have a question about the Kiwi’s reaction to the CPI figures? Join a Trading Q&A webinar to ask it live!

The New Zealand Dollar rallied against its major counterparts following a better-than-expected CPI report. Prices rose 2.2 percent y/y versus 2.0 percent expected and 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016. This brings the headline inflation rate to its highest in over five years.

Consumer prices rose 1.0 percent compared with the prior quarter, topping bets for a 0.8 percent gain and the 0.4 percent increase recorded in the three months to December 2016. This is the strongest reading since December 2010.

New Zealand front-end government bond yields rose as the CPI figures crossed the wires, signaling firming RBNZ rate hike expectations. Overnight index swaps are pricing in an 80 percent probability that the central bank will hike its official cash rate once over the coming 12 months.

In March, the RBNZ said that CPI will be variable over the next year but will return to the midpoint of the target band (1- 3%) over the medium term. Nonetheless, Governor Graeme Wheeler said that policy will remain accommodative for a “considerable period” as numerous uncertainties remain, especially with respect to the international outlook.

Chart created in TradingView

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.