News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.22% Gold: -0.76% Silver: -1.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fRX841FAfC
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.56% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.60% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.89% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.47% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.61% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/nZKnhhjNMy
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.19% Germany 30: -0.28% France 40: -0.32% Wall Street: -1.32% US 500: -1.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/FbBNVFy3wI
  • #Oil Price Outlook: #Crude Surges- $WTI Bulls Eye Major Breakout at May High - $CL Levels - https://t.co/E2sHJaB18y https://t.co/buFh4TfEpG
  • Going live shortly at the link below! Talking inflation, the Fed and what it all means for the $SPX and $NDX and $GLD https://t.co/E2HHhB5GWD
  • The Dollar's rebound following the CPI release is re-forming the 'right shoulder' on the $AUDUSD's Head-and-Shoulders pattern that has been developing throughout 2021. Run up started with the Mar 19, 2020 reversal low, so a lot to correct if 0.7550 eventually gives https://t.co/NrAU370cwl
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.35% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.59% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.71% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.22% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.35% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/SqTzV7xT3f
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 1.18% Germany 30: 0.72% France 40: 0.64% Wall Street: -0.84% US 500: -1.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/t2cIOfCEmP
  • Hey traders! The top story is US inflation figures. What other data are we banking on? Find out from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/5g8GYPuFks
  • US Dollar bulls send the broader DXY Index sharply higher following red-hot inflation data. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here:https://t.co/27CGGOsTxh https://t.co/3uERS5kICD
US Dollar Holds Steady After Strong ADP, Weaker ISM Services

US Dollar Holds Steady After Strong ADP, Weaker ISM Services

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Dylan Jusino,

Talking Points:

- ISM Services (formally known as ISM Non-Manufacturing) misses estimates at 55.2.

- Earlier, ADP Employment Change for March came in at +263K jobs.

- US Dollar (via DXY Index) is largely unchanged on the morning after the data.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding onto its slight gains from this morning after a batch of mixed data. The ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite hit a five-month low in March, coming in at 55.2 versus the estimated 57.0. Likewise, the Employment sub-index hit its lowest level since August 2016.

Earlier in the day, the March US ADP Employment Change beat estimates at +263k, versus the consensus estimate of +189K. This suggests that the trend of lagging productivity and strong job growth persists in the US. This is certainly not the news that the Fed is hoping for as it seeks to continue on the path of monetary policy normalization.

Using a regression model, the ADP report and the ISM Services report can account for 89% of the changes in the NFP figure (R^2 = 0.89) over the past 10-years. Accordingly, the data suggest that the US Nonfarm Payrolls report would be looking for another print around +200K this Friday.

It's important to recognize that due to the unseasonally warm weather the United States experienced in the first few months of the years, jobs growth was probably 'pulled forward' from forthcoming jobs reports. There may be a giveback period, where NFPs sag relative to the outstanding figures seen in January and February.

Here’s a summary of the data this morning that has the DXY Index trading slightly higher on the day:

- USD ADP Employment Change (MAR): +263K versus +189K expected, from +245K.

- USD ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite (MAR): 55.2 versus 57 expected, from 57.6

- USD Markit Services PMI (MAR F): 52.8 versus 53.1 expected, from 52.9.

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Chart 1: DXY 1-minute Chart (April 5, 2017 Intraday)

US Dollar Holds Steady After Strong ADP, Weaker ISM Services

As shown in the 1-minute chart above, the ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing release caused the US Dollar Index to dip back to 100.55 after its release. Leading up to the data print, DXY traded at 100.61 and rose back to 100.64 shortly after. At the time that this was written DXY traded around 100.58.

Read more: DXY Looks to ADP, ISM Services for Clues for Friday’s NFP Report

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist and Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES