News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The market’s preferred ‘fear indicator’ shows a persistent uncertainty around the near future. What can our current conditions and history tell us what to expect from the #VIX through the final two months of the year?https://t.co/jlhcFhH4sI https://t.co/zIrEjxqymJ
  • #Stock market performance is considered an important predictor of the economic outlook. What else can it be used to project? https://t.co/ViTMl19TW3 #Elections2020 https://t.co/methLCaBho
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: https://t.co/b9XwwYS9uJ https://t.co/8OIZVJnaD6
  • A #Euro reversal off technical downtrend resistance now risks a larger correction in price. Here are the levels that matter on the $EURUSD weekly chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/10/31/Euro-Technical-Outlook-EURUSD-Breakdown-Aims-For-Multi-month-Lows.html?QPID=30472&CHID=9 https://t.co/iVhmCXi9EG
  • We are days away from the US Presidential election and the markets are caught in the vortex. A contested outcome would raise serious volatility for the markets whereas a decisive outcome seems to support bullish $SPX and Dollar views from the market rank. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/10/31/SP-500-and-Dollar-Forecast-Leads-Global-Markets-with-Elections-Expectations-.html https://t.co/JnJbyu6TRT
  • The future implications of the #Elections2020 may influence $AUDUSD following the #RBA and #Fed rate decisions as Congress struggles to pass another round of fiscal stimulus. Get your #currencies update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/soPu0Wefz2 https://t.co/UWsERr2AYh
  • Gold prices declined in the aftermath of bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced. $XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #Elections2020. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/gWOxdqk8OL https://t.co/gBMgF0YNjH
  • USD awakens, placing GBP/USD on the backfoot, while EUR/GBP cracks 0.90. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/fndMQJLul8 https://t.co/elz5gNAKrB
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/kpBYVz31Bd https://t.co/7EzMPg9Kqg
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/DjMdgL5x19
If You're a Long-Term Euro Bull, Here's Something to Worry About

If You're a Long-Term Euro Bull, Here's Something to Worry About

2017-03-21 16:04:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points

- Germany’s center-left Social Democrats have taken the lead in the latest opinion poll, ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats.

- That’s bad news for the Euro, even though the German Federal election is still six months away.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

With Euro traders’ attention focusing on the two rounds of France’s Presidential election in late April and early May, it might be too early to think about the German Federal election on September 24. But it might not be.

The opposition center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) has just taken the lead in the latest opinion poll ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU). The poll by INSA, published in the Bild newspaper, gave the SPD a one-point lead over the CDU/CSU, with the former on 32% and the latter on 31%.

By comparison, the conservatives polled 41.5%, compared with the social democrats’ 25.7%, in the Federal election in September 2013 and opinion polls so far this year have shown them with a significant albeit falling lead.

The SPD’s recent transformation has followed the confirmation as its leader of Martin Schulz, the popular former President of the European Parliament, whose first real test will come this coming Sunday, when there is a regional election in the west German state of Saarland. An SPD victory could well erase some of the Euro’s recent gains, both near-term and as the Federal election approaches.

Chart: EUR/USD One-Hour Timeframe (March 15 – March 21)

If You're a Long-Term Euro Bull, Here's Something to Worry About

Chart by IG

As is often the case in Continental Europe, coalitions will need to be built after the Federal election but the polls suggest that a “red-green” coalition of the SPD, the left-wing Die Linke party and the Greens could command a lead over a coalition of the CDU/CSU and the liberal Free Democratic Party.

Moreover, there could also be concerns for Euro bulls if, as expected, the far-right Alternative for Germany party enters the Saarland assembly for the first time after the Sunday vote there.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Don't trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES