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NZ Dollar Falls as 4Q GDP Data Reduces RBNZ Rate Hike Bets

NZ Dollar Falls as 4Q GDP Data Reduces RBNZ Rate Hike Bets

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • New Zealand Dollar declined against its major peers following the worse-than-expected GDP data
  • New Zealand’s economy grew 2.7% y/y and 0.7% q/q versus 3.2% and 0.7% expected respectively
  • Softer economic data likely reduced RBNZ rate hike bets as N.Z. 2-year bond yields fell in tandem

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The New Zealand Dollar fell against its major counterparts after fourth quarter GDP data missed expectations. New Zealand’s economy grew 2.7% y/y versus 3.2% expected and 3.3% in the third quarter (revised lower from 3.5%). The nation’s output increased by 0.4% q/q versus 0.7% expected and 0.8% prior (also revised lower from 1.1%). This marked the slowest pace of quarterly expansion since July 2015.

The Kiwi’s reaction was likely a response to diminished Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike expectations. Indeed, front end New Zealand government bond yields fell simultaneously with the data’s release. Still, the markets are pricing in at least one 25 basis point RBNZ rate increase over the next 12 months.

NZ Dollar Falls as 4Q GDP Data Reduces RBNZ Rate Hike Bets

Chart compiled in TradingView

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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