News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region. Get your #Bitcoin forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/T7iAD0fbbU https://t.co/xVSG7nKIQG
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/HGWZikGQAa
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/2cQ0JgAfh7
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/1zuPdKUmyE
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/qFpg0DCxxL https://t.co/quQxg4WBy3
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/vRUVxvQP8o https://t.co/cUEkW9BfIP
  • Is investing in your favorite brand or buying its products the better financial move? Read the article for a breakdown. https://t.co/iWOlDAK8cD https://t.co/0uS5VvWj12
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/PW5pCw9dKR
  • The Japanese Yen has been making a comeback, but it may soon resume its decline against the US Dollar as USD/JPY consolidates within a bullish Falling Wedge. Watch for a breakout. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zxRWoNR4lS https://t.co/bXTx0TSRmU
  • BTC/USD treading water sideways, 28600 the big level to watch. ETH/USD working on forming a nice-looking descending wedge. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/H1qOV4FR1P https://t.co/tjutUl7Nt7
British Pound Nervy As Supreme Court Brexit Ruling Looms

British Pound Nervy As Supreme Court Brexit Ruling Looms

David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points:

  • The British Pound doesn’t need any more Brexit uncertainty, but may yet get some
  • The UK Supreme Court will rule Tuesday on whether Parliament must assent in pulling the trigger on Brexit’s starting gun
  • If it does, Brexit will still be “on,” but the process will have become more complex

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will find out on Tuesday whether Parliament must agree to the triggering of Britain’s exit from the European Union.

The country’s Supreme Court will rule at 09:30 GMT on whether May can use her executive power – the so-called Royal Prerogative – to invoke the Lisbon Treaty’s Article 50. This would officially begin two years of divorce proceedings.

London’s High Court has already ruled that she cannot, prompting this latest appeal to higher authority. If May wins, she can follow her plans to fire up Article 50 by the end of March. However, if she loses, she may need to introduce a Parliamentary bill to do the same thing. Although thought likely to pass, this will slow the Brexit process.

While some in Parliament remain implacably opposed to leaving the EU, May’s Conservative Party has a narrow majority and the largest opposition party – Labour – has said that it will not block Article 50. That still leaves the pro-European Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists likely to try to stymie May’s “hard Brexit” plans as best they can. The devolved institutions that partially govern Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to want a say too.

So, while May is still likely to get her Brexit, a ruling against her will make it a more complex beast and bring more uncertainty back to sterling markets.

The Pound was clearly the worst immediate casualty of the Brexit vote shock back in June. Back then GBP/USD fell from the 1.50 level down to 1.27 in short order and continued to meander lower, reaching the 1.20 area by October.

The currency has perked up a bit since and markets seemed to like May’s most recent Brexit speech last week. In it, she crucially ruled out UK membership of the European Single Market in favour of the ability to limit immigration and cut bilateral trade deals. She also said that Parliament would get a vote on any Brexit deal.

But the speech also underlined the premium which markets now place on clarity, with the Pound rising in the aftermath even though May cleaved to the “hard Brexit” which investors had supposedly feared.

A sorry sight: Sterling since Brexit

British Pound Nervy As Supreme Court Brexit Ruling Looms

Chart Compiled Using TradingView

The UK economy has remained resilient since the vote, defying forecasts and clocking up some of the strongest developed-market growth to be seen anywhere. The weaker Pound has helped insulate UK manufacturing and tourism from any Brexit uncertainty.

The base case sees May losing in the Supreme Court but still getting a bill through Parliament backing the original Brexit timescale. One risk is that the government narrowly fails to pass such a bill, triggering a general election. However, on current polling that looks like a vote May’s Conservatives would win.

Another risk could be that the Supreme Court ruling is more detailed and demands the consent of the devolved institutions before Article 50 can be triggered. That would mean more uncertainty, a lot more time and could cause the Pound a lot of trouble.

Have you always wanted to know more about trading financial markets? The DailyFX webinars could be just what you need.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES