We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.18% Silver: 0.00% Gold: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lgnQTs4F8U
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.06% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Tu1NZZUBBo
  • The $USD suddenly seems scarce amid the #coronavirus outbreak. That threatens short-term financing underpinning global supply chains, despite the Fed’s epic efforts. Get your US Dollar market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/D2p2Vl2ORK https://t.co/56Iq8CmJ7Z
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.33% France 40: 1.21% Wall Street: 0.29% US 500: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/zusHPHZgFm
  • Ripple IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long Ripple since Mar 29 when Ripple traded near 0.16. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Ripple strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/TnhXuofL8C
  • #Bitcoin prices may see a pickup in volatility ahead of the 2020 halving as the #coronavirus pandemic threatens to disrupt cross-continental $BTC mining operations. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/BoH24MVf4P https://t.co/c7YqD7VXqc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.72%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.06%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/OukR4dIlJc
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.18% Silver: 0.00% Gold: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/xivz7ptPMn
  • Hey, traders 👋 do you want live AMAS with our analysts, market updates and tools to improve your trading strategy? Join us now on Instagram! 👉 https://t.co/pHGzVMqsC4 https://t.co/EBCYaTLWGi
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.25% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.18% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.18% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/aM45N7u2eL
Hopeful Russia Will Find President Trump Double-Edged

Hopeful Russia Will Find President Trump Double-Edged

2017-01-12 03:58:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points

  • Russia has perhaps more reason than most nations to welcome the Trump era
  • At face value, Trump always had more to offer Moscow than Hillary Clinton
  • But Moscow still has plenty to fear from a more protectionist United States

At face value, Russia has reason to cheer Donald Trump’s election victory, as it's reported that the country’s Parliament duly did.

A Clinton win would have offered Moscow little more than the continuation of Barack Obama’s foreign policy stance. That saw Russia under sanctions and bilateral relations arguably at their lowest ebb since the Cold War.

On top of that, Trump was wont to praise Vladimir Putin on the campaign trail and the Russian leader has returned the compliment. Trump has talked about lifting sanctions on Russia and even about joining Russian forces in their assault on anti-Assad rebels in Syria.

Indeed, Trump’s win coupled with the historic oil production cut now coming from OPEC would seem to place Russia in something of a sweet spot, at least a relatively so. It is the world’s largest energy exporter and weak oil prices in recent years have seen it struggling to balance the monetary books.

The 2016 budget depended on an oil price of about $48.75 at the current exchange rate. Russian oil only sold at an average price of$37.80per barrel in the first half of this year, so there's a larger-than-expected deficit to cover as well as worries about non-oil exports depressed by the expensive Ruble. If oil prices do rise, all that is less of a problem.

Market action would seem to bear that out. The Ruble has been steadier against the US Dollar than many emerging market currencies this year and Russian bonds still find quite willing buyers in this yield-hungry world.

Flattering Russia’s economic weakness? USD/RUB in 2016.

Hopeful Russia Will Find President Trump Double-Edged

Chart Compiled using TradingView

Russia’s $1.25 billion Eurobond was oversubscribed at launch on September 22. No Western banks took part in the placement, but the yield of 3.9% brought in the buyers. As well it might have.Moscow’s Micex stock benchmark is hovering near record highs. Admittedly, it has been tracking Wall Street higher, but some buyers clearly see better times ahead for Russia.

However, Trump’s presidency could still see the country back on the ropes, even if his policies are friendlier towards Moscow. That’s if they also lead to the rise in global protectionism that everybody fears.

If history is any guide the knock-on effect of that would be a huge fall in global trade and a consequent slide in demand for energy. This would hit Russia especially hard given its export reliance on that sector.

The Russian economics ministry downgraded its forecast for the economy in September. It now sees Russia underperforming global trends out to 2019. It’s possible that a well-implemented OPEC production cut could scatter some of this gloom, but rising protectionism and a weaker oil price could well make even the new forecasts seem optimistic.

And as usual with the US President-elect, we must wait to see how campaign poetry (such as it was) translates into governing prose. Cosier relations with Moscow without any reduction in current Russian military action in Syria and Crimea is going to be a hard sell, not only to Europe but to many in Congress and the US security machine.CIA chief John Brennan told the BBC recently that Trump should be “wary of Russian promises.”

The network of alliances in Syria is also bewildering. It’s at least theoretically possible that a US alignment with Russia there could see US-supported Assad troops in armed conflict with US-supported Kurdish forces. They have led the fight against Islamic State and now control land which Assad might want back.

These knots won’t be easily cut, even if Trump really wants to.Russia could find itself facing both a more protectionist world and a US President who isn’t as amenable to Moscow as he may have seemed at times on the long campaign trail.

So, how’s DailyFX doing? Check out our analysts’ forecasts.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.