News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here:
Hopeful Russia Will Find President Trump Double-Edged

Hopeful Russia Will Find President Trump Double-Edged

David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points

  • Russia has perhaps more reason than most nations to welcome the Trump era
  • At face value, Trump always had more to offer Moscow than Hillary Clinton
  • But Moscow still has plenty to fear from a more protectionist United States

At face value, Russia has reason to cheer Donald Trump’s election victory, as it's reported that the country’s Parliament duly did.

A Clinton win would have offered Moscow little more than the continuation of Barack Obama’s foreign policy stance. That saw Russia under sanctions and bilateral relations arguably at their lowest ebb since the Cold War.

On top of that, Trump was wont to praise Vladimir Putin on the campaign trail and the Russian leader has returned the compliment. Trump has talked about lifting sanctions on Russia and even about joining Russian forces in their assault on anti-Assad rebels in Syria.

Indeed, Trump’s win coupled with the historic oil production cut now coming from OPEC would seem to place Russia in something of a sweet spot, at least a relatively so. It is the world’s largest energy exporter and weak oil prices in recent years have seen it struggling to balance the monetary books.

The 2016 budget depended on an oil price of about $48.75 at the current exchange rate. Russian oil only sold at an average price of$37.80per barrel in the first half of this year, so there's a larger-than-expected deficit to cover as well as worries about non-oil exports depressed by the expensive Ruble. If oil prices do rise, all that is less of a problem.

Market action would seem to bear that out. The Ruble has been steadier against the US Dollar than many emerging market currencies this year and Russian bonds still find quite willing buyers in this yield-hungry world.

Flattering Russia’s economic weakness? USD/RUB in 2016.

Hopeful Russia Will Find President Trump Double-Edged

Chart Compiled using TradingView

Russia’s $1.25 billion Eurobond was oversubscribed at launch on September 22. No Western banks took part in the placement, but the yield of 3.9% brought in the buyers. As well it might have.Moscow’s Micex stock benchmark is hovering near record highs. Admittedly, it has been tracking Wall Street higher, but some buyers clearly see better times ahead for Russia.

However, Trump’s presidency could still see the country back on the ropes, even if his policies are friendlier towards Moscow. That’s if they also lead to the rise in global protectionism that everybody fears.

If history is any guide the knock-on effect of that would be a huge fall in global trade and a consequent slide in demand for energy. This would hit Russia especially hard given its export reliance on that sector.

The Russian economics ministry downgraded its forecast for the economy in September. It now sees Russia underperforming global trends out to 2019. It’s possible that a well-implemented OPEC production cut could scatter some of this gloom, but rising protectionism and a weaker oil price could well make even the new forecasts seem optimistic.

And as usual with the US President-elect, we must wait to see how campaign poetry (such as it was) translates into governing prose. Cosier relations with Moscow without any reduction in current Russian military action in Syria and Crimea is going to be a hard sell, not only to Europe but to many in Congress and the US security machine.CIA chief John Brennan told the BBC recently that Trump should be “wary of Russian promises.”

The network of alliances in Syria is also bewildering. It’s at least theoretically possible that a US alignment with Russia there could see US-supported Assad troops in armed conflict with US-supported Kurdish forces. They have led the fight against Islamic State and now control land which Assad might want back.

These knots won’t be easily cut, even if Trump really wants to.Russia could find itself facing both a more protectionist world and a US President who isn’t as amenable to Moscow as he may have seemed at times on the long campaign trail.

So, how’s DailyFX doing? Check out our analysts’ forecasts.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.