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US Dollar Rally Pauses as November CPI Falls in Line with Expectations

US Dollar Rally Pauses as November CPI Falls in Line with Expectations

2016-12-15 14:20:00
Omar Habib,

Talking Points:

- Headline consumer prices reached their highest level in over two years.

- Inflation rose but not dramatically, despite spikes in Consumer Confidence..

- USD/JPY slightly lower on the data.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose +1.7% (y/y) in November, driven by a +0.2% monthly gain. The yearly gain matched expectations of +1.7% and beat the previous reading of +1.6% (y/y). Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose +2.1% (y/y), driven by a +0.2% monthly gain. The core yearly gain missed expectations of +2.2% annually, but matched the previous reading of +2.1%.

Continued strength in CPI inflation, possibly driven by the jumps in Consumer Confidence seen recently, likely signals continued consumer strength in the US, which is vital to the health of the US economy as consumption accounts for approximately 70% of GDP. It is especially encouraging to see Headline CPI continue to track higher, as the +1.7% gain in Headline CPI is the largest since October 2014.

Other data out this morning included the Philadelphia Fed Index, which came in at a strong 21.5, vs 9.1 expected and 7.6 previously. US Empire Manufacturing was at 9.0, vs 4.0 expected and 1.5 previously. US Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected at 254k, versus 255k expected and 258k previously.

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Chart 1: USD/JPY Index 1-minute Timeframe (December 15, 2016 Intraday)

US Dollar Rally Pauses as November CPI Falls in Line with Expectations

Immediately following the news, the USD/JPY fell to as low as 117.74 from 118.07. By the time of writing, it was trending around the same area, at 117.76. The pair had been pulling back starting at the top of the hour, easing away from its high of 118.31 at the top of the hour.

Read more: Higher US Yields Post-FOMC Pushing US Dollar to Fresh Highs

--- Written by Omar Habib, DailyFX

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