Talking Points:
- British Pound may not finding lasting direction in UK CPI figures
- ZEW survey likely to pass with little fanfare on limited ECB impact
- Japanese Yen down in quiet Asian trade as Nikkei recovers losses
November’s UK CPI report headlines the economic data docket in European trading hours. The headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.1 percent, the highest since October 2014. An upbeat result may offer a near-term boost to the British Pound but significant follow-through seems unlikely absent a dramatic deviation from consensus forecasts.
The Bank of England has made it quite plain that it intends to look though a pickup in price growth driven by Sterling weakness following the Brexit referendum. Governor Mark Carney and company have pledged not to sit idly by if the economy heats up too dramatically but with inflation well short of the 2 percent target, that seems like at most a distant threat.
The German ZEW Survey of analyst sentiment may likewise pass with relatively little fanfare. Sentiment is projected to improve a bit but the implications of such an outcome for ECB policy are virtually nil after the central bank extended its QE effort through the end of next year. As such, the near-term Euro impact ought to be modest unless fears of cooling amid post-Brexit vote uncertainty deliver a harsh disappointment.
The Japanese Yen underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The perennial anti-risk currency declined as the Nikkei 225 stock benchmark edged upward, erasing early-session losses to post a narrow gain on the day.
See the schedule of upcoming webinars and join us LIVE to follow the financial markets!
Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
21:45 | NZD | Mfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (3Q) | 2.1% | - | 2.2% |
21:45 | NZD | Mfg Activity SA (QoQ) (3Q) | 0.4% | - | 1.8% |
22:30 | AUD | ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf. | 113.4 | - | 118.6 |
0:30 | AUD | NAB Business Conditions (NOV) | 5 | - | 7 |
0:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence (NOV) | 5 | - | 4 |
0:30 | AUD | House Price Index (QoQ) (3Q) | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
0:30 | AUD | House Price Index (YoY) (3Q) | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% |
2:00 | CNY | Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV) | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
2:00 | CNY | Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (NOV) | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
2:00 | CNY | Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV) | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% |
2:00 | CNY | Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (NOV) | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
2:00 | CNY | Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (NOV) | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
7:00 | EUR | German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (NOV) | - | 0.4% | Low |
7:00 | EUR | German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (NOV) | - | 0.5% | Low |
7:00 | EUR | German CPI (MoM) (NOV F) | 0.1% | 0.1% | Medium |
7:00 | EUR | German CPI (YoY) (NOV F) | 0.8% | 0.8% | Medium |
7:00 | EUR | German CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (NOV F) | 0.0% | 0.0% | Low |
7:00 | EUR | German CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (NOV F) | 0.7% | 0.7% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | CPI (MoM) (NOV) | 0.2% | 0.1% | High |
9:30 | GBP | CPI (YoY) (NOV) | 1.1% | 0.9% | High |
9:30 | GBP | CPI Core (YoY) (NOV) | 1.3% | 1.2% | High |
9:30 | GBP | RPI (MoM) (NOV) | 0.2% | 0.0% | Medium |
9:30 | GBP | RPI (YoY) (NOV) | 2.1% | 2.0% | Medium |
9:30 | GBP | RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments ((YoY)) (NOV) | 2.3% | 2.2% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | PPI Input NSA (MoM) (NOV) | -0.5% | 4.6% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | PPI Input NSA (YoY) (NOV) | 13.5% | 12.2% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | PPI Output NSA (MoM) (NOV) | 0.2% | 0.6% | Medium |
9:30 | GBP | PPI Output NSA (YoY) (NOV) | 2.5% | 2.1% | Medium |
9:30 | GBP | PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (NOV) | 0.2% | 0.4% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (NOV) | 2.3% | 1.9% | Low |
9:30 | GBP | House Price Index (YoY) (OCT) | 7.3% | 7.7% | Low |
10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (3Q) | - | 0.4% | Low |
10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment (YoY) (3Q) | - | 1.4% | Low |
10:00 | EUR | German ZEW Survey Current Situation (DEC) | 59 | 58.8 | Medium |
10:00 | EUR | German ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC) | 14 | 13.8 | Medium |
10:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC) | - | 15.8 | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EUR/USD | 1.0338 | 1.0470 | 1.0553 | 1.0602 | 1.0685 | 1.0734 | 1.0866 |
GBP/USD | 1.2334 | 1.2488 | 1.2583 | 1.2642 | 1.2737 | 1.2796 | 1.2950 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak