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British Pound May Mostly Overlook UK Inflation Uptick

British Pound May Mostly Overlook UK Inflation Uptick

2016-12-13 06:07:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound may not finding lasting direction in UK CPI figures
  • ZEW survey likely to pass with little fanfare on limited ECB impact
  • Japanese Yen down in quiet Asian trade as Nikkei recovers losses

November’s UK CPI report headlines the economic data docket in European trading hours. The headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.1 percent, the highest since October 2014. An upbeat result may offer a near-term boost to the British Pound but significant follow-through seems unlikely absent a dramatic deviation from consensus forecasts.

The Bank of England has made it quite plain that it intends to look though a pickup in price growth driven by Sterling weakness following the Brexit referendum. Governor Mark Carney and company have pledged not to sit idly by if the economy heats up too dramatically but with inflation well short of the 2 percent target, that seems like at most a distant threat.

The German ZEW Survey of analyst sentiment may likewise pass with relatively little fanfare. Sentiment is projected to improve a bit but the implications of such an outcome for ECB policy are virtually nil after the central bank extended its QE effort through the end of next year. As such, the near-term Euro impact ought to be modest unless fears of cooling amid post-Brexit vote uncertainty deliver a harsh disappointment.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The perennial anti-risk currency declined as the Nikkei 225 stock benchmark edged upward, erasing early-session losses to post a narrow gain on the day.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Mfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (3Q)

2.1%

-

2.2%

21:45

NZD

Mfg Activity SA (QoQ) (3Q)

0.4%

-

1.8%

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf.

113.4

-

118.6

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (NOV)

5

-

7

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (NOV)

5

-

4

0:30

AUD

House Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)

1.5%

2.5%

2.0%

0:30

AUD

House Price Index (YoY) (3Q)

3.5%

4.6%

4.1%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

6.2%

6.1%

6.1%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (NOV)

6.0%

6.0%

6.0%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)

10.8%

10.2%

10.0%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (NOV)

10.4%

10.3%

10.3%

2:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (NOV)

8.3%

8.3%

8.3%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

-

0.4%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

-

0.5%

Low

7:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (NOV F)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (NOV F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (NOV F)

0.0%

0.0%

Low

7:00

EUR

German CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (NOV F)

0.7%

0.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

0.1%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (NOV)

1.1%

0.9%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (NOV)

1.3%

1.2%

High

9:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

0.0%

Medium

9:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (NOV)

2.1%

2.0%

Medium

9:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments ((YoY)) (NOV)

2.3%

2.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (MoM) (NOV)

-0.5%

4.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (YoY) (NOV)

13.5%

12.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

0.6%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (YoY) (NOV)

2.5%

2.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

0.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (NOV)

2.3%

1.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

House Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

7.3%

7.7%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (3Q)

-

0.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (YoY) (3Q)

-

1.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey Current Situation (DEC)

59

58.8

Medium

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC)

14

13.8

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations (DEC)

-

15.8

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0338

1.0470

1.0553

1.0602

1.0685

1.0734

1.0866

GBP/USD

1.2334

1.2488

1.2583

1.2642

1.2737

1.2796

1.2950

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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