News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • #HSI Hang Seng Index finished slightly below 30,000 mark as Southbound net flow via the stock connections fell three days in a row to HK$ 16,263 million, from a record high of 26,592 million on Jan 19th. Total southbound flows contributed to 31% HKEX's daily turnover on Thur.
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn more about controlling greed here:
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's webinar at 5:30 AM EST/10:30 AM GMT where you can learn how to become a better trader in the current market climate. Register here:
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Credit Conditions Survey due at 09:30 GMT (15min)
  • 🇿🇦 Retail Sales YoY (NOV) Actual: -4% Expected: -2.5% Previous: -2.3%
  • 🇵🇱 Employment Growth YoY (DEC) Actual: -1% Expected: -1.2% Previous: -1.2%
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • 🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (NOV) Actual: €-0.59B Previous: €-0.65B
  • 🇳🇴 Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision Actual: 0% Expected: 0% Previous: 0%
  • 🇵🇱 Employment Growth YoY (DEC) Actual: -1.0% Expected: -1.2% Previous: -1.2%
EUR/USD Edges Lower on Latest OECD Global Growth Report

EUR/USD Edges Lower on Latest OECD Global Growth Report

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Talking Points

- The US and China can help boost global growth from current levels but others need to do some fiscal lifting.

- The EU needs to make “more robust use of fiscal space”

- The UK’s prospects are “considerable weaker” post- Brexit.

Global growth could gather steam through the next two years to around +3.5%, from a current +3% projected pace, according to the latest Global Economic Outlook from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The assessment says proposed fiscal policies in the US could increase global growth by +0.1% in 2017 and by +0.3% in 2018, while the fiscal stimulus underway in China is worth +0.2% on average over 2017-18. US growth is set to hit +2.3% in 2017 and +3.0% in 2018, while China will grow by +6.4% and +6.2% over the same timeframes.

Monetary policy is set to diverge in the coming years, according to the OECD assumptions, bolstering the US Dollar further against other major currencies. The OECD expects the US Fed Funds rate to hit its upper bound of 2% by December 2018, while the overnight Japanese interest rate is expected to remain at minus 0.1%. The UK bank rate is expected to remain at 0.25% until the end of 2018 and the in the euro area the main refinancing rate is assumed to be kept at 0% also until the end of 2018.

Other advanced economies, however, still need to push further, according to the report, in an effort to prompt further growth. “A more robust fiscal easing than currently projected in many other advanced economies, including in the EU, would further support domestic and global activity. OECD analysis of fiscal space indicates that the EU has room for more concerted action.” The EU is expected to see growth of 1.6% and 1.7% over the next two years.

Staying in Europe, the UK needs to take additional action after the growth momentum stalled after the Brexit vote in late June. The OECD notes that accommodative monetary policy has limited the impact of the vote, “Uncertainty about the United Kingdom’s relationships with the rest of the world is high, and the risk of exit from the European Union’s single market and customs union has pushed the exchange rate to new lows and lifted long-term interest rates.” UK growth is expected to fall to 1.2% in 2017 and to 1% in 2018.

Chart 1: EUR/USD 30-minute Chart (November 24 to 28, 2016)

EUR/USD Edges Lower on Latest OECD Global Growth Report

The report pushed the EUR/USD lower but the move was muted as traders wait for more pressing data and economic events. A raft of European data is released over the next couple of days, including the latest look at Euro-Zone inflation on Wednesday, while on Friday, November US non-farm payrolls will be closely watched. And at the weekend, the Italian constitutional referendum could undermine the single currency further if PM Matteo Renzi loses the vote, stoking additional uncertainty in the euro area.

Read more: Risks Increasing for Euro Ahead of Italian Constitutional Referendum

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.