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AUD/USD Keeps Rising as Aussie Inflation Expectations Pared

AUD/USD Keeps Rising as Aussie Inflation Expectations Pared

David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points:

  • Australian consumer inflation expectations retreated a bit in November
  • However, it still looks as though RBA’s reflationary policies are working
  • Unsurprisingly,Australian markets were more focused on Trump’s win

The Australian Dollar remained focused Thursday on the aftermath of Donald Trump’s shock election win, even as a key snapshot of local inflation expectations was released.

The private Melbourne Institute’s look at consumer inflation expectations twelve months out saw them at 3.2% in November, from 3.7% the month before.

However, the proportion of respondents who expect inflation in the 0-5% range rose by 4.5 percentage points to 73.1%.

Australia’s consumer price index rose 0.7% in the third quarter, according to official figures, for an on-year rise of 1.3%. Both came in slightly ahead of expectations and were above the second quarter’s levels.

Back then annual inflation was at its weakest for sixteen years.

The report suggests that Reserve Bank of Australia is having some success in returning a bit more pricing power to the economy and, perhaps as importantly, expectations of that success.

It cut interest rates to a record low of 1.50% in August.

The Australian Dollar seemed more focused on international events on Thursday however. It had suffered with other risk-on currencies at Donald Trump’s victory,but the conciliatory tone of the Republican nominee’s acceptance speech seems to have calmed market nerves.

AUD/USD was at 0.7663 after the data, rising from a low of 0.76296 earlier in the session.

AUD/USD: Bouncing back

AUD/USD Keeps Rising as Aussie Inflation Expectations Pared

Chart created using TradingView

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.