News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/BNJ5uTKz1A https://t.co/x0YxwlKWaR
  • Relief rally ahead for $AUDNZD? Bullish RSI divergence at key psychological support (1.0600) suggests a rebound back towards the 21-MA (1.0626) and 50-MA (1.0659) could be on the cards Conversely, a break below 1.0590 probably opens the door for further losses. $AUD $NZD https://t.co/1zUvYXyLBh
  • WTI Crude Oil fell to a fresh four-month-low this morning. This fresh low broke through range support that’s held for the better part of two months. Get your #crudeoil technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/UMeWEIrTSh https://t.co/a3Ujc3Rf2z
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.25% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.42% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.59% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.62% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/vspt9gv2qH
  • Nasdaq futures pivot sharply lower in the wake of earnings from $AMZN, $GOOGL, $FB and $AAPL, which comprise over 35% of the tech-heavy index collectively. $NQ_F $NDX still trading positive on the day. https://t.co/w5yqbxsqjb https://t.co/4jxdwQY8yo
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.13% Silver: -0.55% Gold: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/Lgi1Jei5qJ
  • Apple earnings: EPS $0.73 vs $0.71 est Revenue $64.70B vs est $63.47B $AAPL
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.31%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 66.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/k2e06fEjoh
  • ECB Pre-Commits to More Stimulus: ECB’s Lagarde had stated that the GC were in agreement that given the current backdrop, risks were clearly tilted to the downside. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/KPjoDcQ0D0 https://t.co/vV1nprDCKL
  • Watch @PeterHanksFX, @DailyFX Equity Analyst covering the Earnings live - https://t.co/cpf5s3UvUn
Intraday US Dollar Rally Hits Pause as US Consumer Confidence Dives

Intraday US Dollar Rally Hits Pause as US Consumer Confidence Dives

2016-10-25 14:25:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Omar Habib,
Share:

Talking Points:

- Like the October US UMich Sentiment Index , the October Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell.

- Q3’16 Personal Consumption Expenditure growth is expected to be significantly weaker than in Q2’16.

- The US Dollar’s intraday weakened slightly amid an overall limited market reaction.

Earlier today, the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index for October showed a decline from previous reading of 103.5 to 98.6, missing expectations of 101.5. While a big miss, the reading was not necessarily a surprise; two weeks ago, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a weak read of 87.9 versus 91.2 in September; producing the weakest reading since September 2015. Similarly, today’s report showed the fastest decline in confidence since November 2015.

The components of the headline index were decidedly mixed. It appears consumers remain optimistic about the present, but are growing more concerned about the future of the US economy – perhaps fatigue from the contentious US Presidential election cycle. According to the Conference Board, the Present Situation Index decreased from 127.9 to 120.6, while the Expectations Index declined from 87.2 last month to 83.9.

This weakening in Consumer Confidence may be a negative signal for the US economic growth; a strong consumer is a vital component of a strong US economy. Consumption is approximately 70% of US Gross Domestic Product and has been the primary driver of US GDP this year, especially in Q2’16. While the headline reading for Q2’16 GDP was only +1.4% annualized, Personal Consumption Expenditures grew by +4.3% annualized; consumer strength kept GDP above water, which had been restrained by cutbacks in government spending and private investment.

The first reading for Q3’16 US GDP is due this Friday at 12:30 GMT, with consensus forecasts calling for a headline reading of +2.5% versus the prior rate of +1.4% annualized. This time however, PCE growth is expected at only +2.6%, versus the +4.3% annualized in Q2’16.

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Chart 1: USD Index 1-minute Chart: October 25, 2016 Intraday

Intraday US Dollar Rally Hits Pause as US Consumer Confidence Dives

The US Dollar (via DXY Index) had a relatively muted reaction around the data, easing away from its session highs at 99.09. However, with US Dollar strength burgeoning the past few days, the weak sentiment readings – especially when viewed in context of the US elections – may be only a reason for the intraday greenback rally to pause, not turnaround.

Read more: USD/JPY Breakout Attempt Foreshadowing ’Risk’ Rally?

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst and Omar Habib, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES