News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/ltVTNO2sjT
  • GBP/USD clears the May low (1.3801) as the Federal Reserve forecasts two rate hikes for 2023. Get your $GBP market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/WdTG2niAKz https://t.co/2j02VyH0wm
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.60% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.91% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.96% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HWVSmqaiYF
  • The amount of breakouts the #USD saw against its major peers this week was fairly impressive Lots of opportunities here for reversing dominant downtrends that have been prevailing for about 14-15 months Stay tuned for my USD weekly technical outlook coming out this weekend!
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.19% Silver: -0.41% Gold: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/J6vFrm0Psb
  • Post-Fed, plunging commodity prices are weighing down growth-sensitive currencies like the Canadian Dollar. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/RwM9qu0Zjv https://t.co/u6WFpqfcdZ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 85.22%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 70.57%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/O3dA4qOEid
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% FTSE 100: 0.09% Germany 30: 0.06% Wall Street: -0.02% US 500: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MFEjkHP34f
  • Fed's Kashkari: Maximum employment means at the very least back to pre-COVID levels of employment
  • Fed's Kashkari: - I am opposed to rate hikes at least through 2023 - The labor market is still in a deep hole; it will take some time to get people reattached to the work force
Intraday US Dollar Rally Hits Pause as US Consumer Confidence Dives

Intraday US Dollar Rally Hits Pause as US Consumer Confidence Dives

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Omar Habib,

Talking Points:

- Like the October US UMich Sentiment Index , the October Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell.

- Q3’16 Personal Consumption Expenditure growth is expected to be significantly weaker than in Q2’16.

- The US Dollar’s intraday weakened slightly amid an overall limited market reaction.

Earlier today, the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index for October showed a decline from previous reading of 103.5 to 98.6, missing expectations of 101.5. While a big miss, the reading was not necessarily a surprise; two weeks ago, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a weak read of 87.9 versus 91.2 in September; producing the weakest reading since September 2015. Similarly, today’s report showed the fastest decline in confidence since November 2015.

The components of the headline index were decidedly mixed. It appears consumers remain optimistic about the present, but are growing more concerned about the future of the US economy – perhaps fatigue from the contentious US Presidential election cycle. According to the Conference Board, the Present Situation Index decreased from 127.9 to 120.6, while the Expectations Index declined from 87.2 last month to 83.9.

This weakening in Consumer Confidence may be a negative signal for the US economic growth; a strong consumer is a vital component of a strong US economy. Consumption is approximately 70% of US Gross Domestic Product and has been the primary driver of US GDP this year, especially in Q2’16. While the headline reading for Q2’16 GDP was only +1.4% annualized, Personal Consumption Expenditures grew by +4.3% annualized; consumer strength kept GDP above water, which had been restrained by cutbacks in government spending and private investment.

The first reading for Q3’16 US GDP is due this Friday at 12:30 GMT, with consensus forecasts calling for a headline reading of +2.5% versus the prior rate of +1.4% annualized. This time however, PCE growth is expected at only +2.6%, versus the +4.3% annualized in Q2’16.

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Chart 1: USD Index 1-minute Chart: October 25, 2016 Intraday

Intraday US Dollar Rally Hits Pause as US Consumer Confidence Dives

The US Dollar (via DXY Index) had a relatively muted reaction around the data, easing away from its session highs at 99.09. However, with US Dollar strength burgeoning the past few days, the weak sentiment readings – especially when viewed in context of the US elections – may be only a reason for the intraday greenback rally to pause, not turnaround.

Read more: USD/JPY Breakout Attempt Foreshadowing ’Risk’ Rally?

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst and Omar Habib, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES