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Atlanta Fed Lowers 3Q GDP Forecast on Investment Growth Downgrade

Atlanta Fed Lowers 3Q GDP Forecast on Investment Growth Downgrade

Varun Jaitly,

Talking Points:

  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow model lowers growth forecast on slowing investment
  • Real equipment investment, residential investment have fallen since August
  • Next forecast update comes on Sept 30, will include PCE inflation figures

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta updated its GDPNow forecasting model, revising the projected third-quarter economic growth rate to 2.8 from 2.9 percent. Multiple measures of domestic investment contributed to the adjustment.

The Fed lowered third-quarter expectations forpace of real equipment investment growth fell from 1.5 to 0.8 percent, citing the US Census Bureau’s durable goods orders report. Residential investment also negatively contributed to the final measure, with projections now calling for an 8.9 percent decline.

The next adjustment to the model will come on September 30th following the release of Augusts’ personal income and spending data, which will include an update of the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge.

Atlanta Fed Lowers 3Q GDP Forecast on Investment Growth Downgrade

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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