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GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Positioning Reaching Extreme Levels

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Positioning Reaching Extreme Levels

2016-08-20 00:16:00
Varun Jaitly,
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Talking Points:

  • DailyFX SSI shows 62% traders long the GBP/USD pair, down from 73% on August 12th
  • GBP/JPY SSI set a 4-year high (76%), EUR/GBP positioning dropped to a 12-month low (17%)
  • Event risk for the Pound is set to be light with UK GDP will be released on Friday the 26th

Having trouble trading the British Pound? This may be why.

Major British Pound crosses offered strong positioning readings into the end of the week with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) showing a majority of retail traders long the Sterling. The SSI indicator is currently shows 62 percent of traders long GBP/USD, lower than last week’s 7-month high. Speculative positioning for GBP/JPY hit a four-year high with 76 percent of traders long the pair. EUR/GBP is currently showing a mere 17 percent of traders long –the lowest level since August of 2015. It is important to note that the Speculative Sentiment index is frequently a contrarian indicator as retail traders’ inexperience and emotions accumulate.

All three Pound pairs are near extreme price levels as EUR/GBP hit a three-year high on Tuesday, and GBP/JPY traded close to its three year low throughout the week. GBP/USD is close to more extreme levels namely, the three decade lows that the pair hit following the UK referendum (Brexit) vote.

Below is a summary of next week’s event risk for the British Pound. Data is set to be light, until Friday when GDP will be released.

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Positioning Reaching Extreme LevelsGBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Positioning Reaching Extreme LevelsGBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Positioning Reaching Extreme LevelsGBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Positioning Reaching Extreme Levels

(Charts made with Marketscope 2.0)

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