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EUR/USD Unfazed by GDP Data as Greece and Germany Beat Expectations

EUR/USD Unfazed by GDP Data as Greece and Germany Beat Expectations

2016-08-12 10:13:00
Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst
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Talking Points:

-Euro-Zone’s 2Q year-on-year GDP expanded 1.6%, unchanged from the advance reading

-Germany’s growth slowed but was better than expected at 0.4% QoQ, Greece surprised to the upside

-EUR/USD was little changed as low volatility prevails, short term outlook here

Learn good trading habits with the “Traits of successful traders” series

The Euro was little changed versus the US Dollar (at the time this report was written) after today’s Euro-Zone 2Q GDP figures came in line with expectations.

According to Eurostat, Euro-Zone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) matched the initial preliminary report and grew a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in Q2, a slowdown from the impressive Q1 figure of 0.6%, but in line with expectations.

The year-on-year change in GDP was 1.6%, as the first estimate, in line with expectations.

The Greece GDP figures released at the same time surprised to the upside printing +0.3% QoQ versus the -0.2% expected print and a prior revised -0.1% figure (from -0.5%).

The economy shrank on an annual basis printing a NSA YoY figure of -0.1%, better than the expected -1.8% fall and the prior revised -0.8% reading.

Earlier today, Germany saw growth slow to 0.4% QoQ from the prior 0.7% figure, but the number was better than the expected 0.2% print.

Perhaps worth noting as well was the worrying readings from Italy indicating growth stagnated, printing 0.0% QoQ versus an expected 0.2% and a prior 0.7% read.

The year-on-year number disappointed too with the backdrop of the upcoming referendum for a constitutional reform.

Today’s numbers might paint a picture of diverging economic paths in the Euro-Zone, but with an overall ‘summer lull’, depressed volatilityand a Euro which seems “driver-less” at the moment, the currency was seemingly unimpressed by today’s developments.

Looking ahead, Advance US Retail Sales data is on tap and we highlighted the EUR/USD levels to watch here.

Meanwhile, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is showing that about 40.7% of traders are long the EUR/USD at the time of writing. The SSI is mainly used as a contrarian indicator, but the current range conditions are correlated with retail traders’ more successful periods (see “Traits of Successful Traders” research), implying possible weakness ahead.

You can find more info about the DailyFX SSI indicator here

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart: August 12, 2016

EUR/USD Unfazed by GDP Data as Greece and Germany Beat Expectations

--- Written by Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Oded Shimoni, e-mail oshimoni@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @OdedShimoni

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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