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Retail AUD/USD Shorts Outnumber Longs by Most in Over 3 Months

Retail AUD/USD Shorts Outnumber Longs by Most in Over 3 Months

Ilya Spivak, Varun Jaitly,

Talking Points:

  • Retail traders most net-short Aussie Dollar since April 2016
  • 63 percent of traders are short AUD/USD, 37 percent are long
  • SSI has fallen to -1.68 from 1.02 in week after an RBA rate cut

Having trouble trading the Australian Dollar? This may be why.

Short AUD/USD positions held by retail investors outnumber long trades by the largest margin since April 20, with the Speculative Sentiment Index measuring -1.6884. It is also noteworthy that April 20th was the year-to-date high for AUD/USD. The reading implies that 63 percent of open exposure is on the short side while 37 percent of positions are long.

Long positioning has been trending lower since June 27. This typically has bullish implications. SSI is a contrarian indicator, so increasingly net-short exposure hints AUD/USD may be biased upward.

Retail AUD/USD Shorts Outnumber Longs by Most in Over 3 Months

(Source: Marketscope 2.0)

There have been a number of recent Australian and US developments shaping AUD/USD price action and traders’ sentiment. On August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to 1.5 percent, a historically low level. On August 5, July’s US payrolls data beat analyst expectations, with the economy adding 75 thousand more jobs than projected.

AUD/USD faces relatively light event risk this week. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will be giving a speech on Wednesday at 3:05 GMT. His statements may hint at the Bank’s sentiment towards the recent Australian Dollar price action following the rate cut. For the US, July’s Retail Sales data will be released on Friday, followed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence report.

Retail AUD/USD Shorts Outnumber Longs by Most in Over 3 Months

(Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar)

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