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Australian Dollar Climbs as Employment Data Fuels RBA Speculation

Australian Dollar Climbs as Employment Data Fuels RBA Speculation

2016-07-14 03:56:00
Ilya Spivak, Christian Lewis,
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Talking Points

  • AUD/USD climbed after Australia’s jobs report crossed the wires
  • Economy added net 7.9k employees in July versus 10.0k expected
  • Strong full-time jobs gain may have overshadowed headline print

Monitor short-term AUD/USD trends using the Grid Sight Index (GSI) here.

AUD/USD climbed alongside Australian bond yields after July’s Employment numbers crossed the wires. Interestingly, prices rose despite the headline net jobs gain figure missing analysts’ expectations. The report showed the economy added 7.9k jobs versus consensus forecasts calling for a 10.0k gain.

Details of the report reveal a gain of 38.4k full-time jobs and a loss of 30.6k part-time ones. Traders may have interpreted this as broadly supportive. Indeed, in as much as the data hints at a transition of over 30k workers to longer hours and potentially more stable contracts, it may imply confidence in future growth among Australian businesses.

Overnight index swaps (OIS) imply financial markets expect at least one RBA interest rate cut over the next 12 months. In this context, the parallel advance in the Australian Dollar and benchmark bond yields may hint that investors now see easing happening later than previously expected.

Australian Dollar Climbs as Employment Data Fuels RBA Speculation

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