News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long AUD/JPY for the first time since Sep 16, 2020 11:00 GMT when AUD/JPY traded near 76.69. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to AUD/JPY weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ixxjaexZoP
  • The US Dollar is struggling against ASEAN currencies despite weakness in the S&P 500. Capital remains flowing into emerging markets, keeping USD under pressure, could this change? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/nwhy3XhE74 https://t.co/5S6AARA0DA
  • Gold prices is consolidating at US$ 1,868 - its 100-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line. Will it hold above this key support level? https://t.co/o0BM7ABeka
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.23% Gold: -0.07% Silver: -0.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/X6JBrsCCnF
  • While @IG_US Client Sentiment is offering a mixed outlook for the S&P 500 and #Dow Jones, these could be at risk to a turn lower based on multiple bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9kYnq6hH1f https://t.co/bLHDVvd44Q
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/p80ihot5KY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.00%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 67.34%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PHdbvQq8kU
  • Copper prices may continue to push higher despite a worrying surge in Covid-19 cases and the lack of progress in Congressional stimulus negotiations. Get your #copper market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/N2OW566nID https://t.co/VJfjTNDdZI
  • The US weekly jobless claim number came in at 870k, in line with expectations. This marked a 4th consecutive weekly reading below 1 million mark, but the rate of improvement in the jobs market appeared to have slowed recently. https://t.co/7pEUQk80C8
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/MSOw9DeSxe
US Labor Data Sets Up Better US NFPs; EUR/USD Falls On Release

US Labor Data Sets Up Better US NFPs; EUR/USD Falls On Release

2016-07-07 14:04:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Omar Habib,
Share:

Talking Points:

- Labor data beat expectations, looking to reverse trend of slowdown in employment growth.

- Fed centrists and leaders have said a trend of +100k job growth is enough.

- EUR/USD rises slightly as the USD strengthens on the news.

The first look at June US labor data came in above expectations and roughly in line with trend, setting up Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls release to post a rebound after May’s abhorrent number. US ADP employment came in at +172K, beating expectations of +160K.

ADP employment is an guide of what to expect for Friday’s NFP report but it is not a direct link; a contemporaneous relationship has been exhibited. Yet it’s worth pointing out that ADP has exceeded NFP’s payroll growth in eight of the last twelve reports. Elsewhere, weekly jobless claims came in at 254K, beating expectations of 269K – another piece of evidence that the May NFP reading may be a ‘one-off.’

In looking to tomorrow’s June US NFP report, one number to pay close attention to, other than the headline job growth number, is a revision to last month’s data, which had a 90% confidence interval of plus or minus 115,000 jobs – meaning that May’s change in employment could have been between a loss of -77K or a gain of +153K. A strong revision to last month’s data could be a strong market mover.

The trend of 200k jobs growth per month has recently been a psychological level for markets, but Fed leaders and centrists (the Goldilocks of the Fed; not too hawkish or too dovish) tend have another number in mind. In October 2015, San Fran Fed President John Williams wrote in a research note that he believed growth of +100K jobs per month was enough to sustain the growth in the labor force and maintain the current unemployment rate. In December 2015, Chair Janet Yellen reiterated this same view. By the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, assuming a 4.8% longer term unemployment rate, the economy only needs +105k job growth per month to sustain that level.

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, July 7, 2016

Chart 1: EUR/USD 1-minute Chart (July 7, 2016 Intraday)

US Labor Data Sets Up Better US NFPs; EUR/USD Falls On Release

In an immediate response to the data, EUR/USD slipped, trading to $1.1067 from $1.1087, and then recovered to near $1.1090. By the time this report was written, EUR/USD had settled near $1.1090. With FX volatility edging higher again, it’s the right time to review risk management principles to protect your capital.

Read more: July Forex Seasonality Sees Softer US Dollar, but Brexit is a Major Wrinkle

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist and Omar Habib, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES