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Sentix Suggests the Euro-Zone is Close to Stagnation Following "Brexit"

Sentix Suggests the Euro-Zone is Close to Stagnation Following "Brexit"

Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst

Talking Points:

- Sentix Investor Confidence Index fell to +1.7 from the prior +9.9, significantly lower than expected

- Report says the Euro-Zone is dangerously close to stagnation following “Brexit”

- Sentix comment that the ECB is now expected to ease further and Euro-break up probabilities have increased

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Sentix Investor confidence Index fell -8.2 points in July to reach +1.7, which marked the lowest overall reading since January 2015. The index fell below the June reading of +9.9, and was significantly below economists’ expectations for a drop to +5.0.

The survey showed that the “Expectations” value crashed by 12.0 points to negative territory, printing -2.0, which is the lowest level since November 2014. The “Current Situation” value fell to +5.5 from the prior +9.8. Combined this led to the overall sharp decline by the index.

The Sentix Investor Confidence Index rates the six-month economic outlook for the Euro-Zone, surveyed from registered investors and analysts. A reading above zero indicates optimism, while a reading below zero indicates pessimism.

Looking into the report, Sentix said that that the “Brexit” decision dampened economic expectations, and that investors clearly differentiate and believe the Euro-Zone to be the most adversely affected region, alongside the Swiss economy.

The report also suggested that The Euro-Zone is dangerously close to stagnation, which means that the ECB is confronted with newly emerging expectations for further easing measures.

Sentix further emphasized that the political risks from the Brexit decision are a heavy burden for the Euro-Zone and that the Sentix Euro-break up probabilities have increased.

Outside of the Euro-Zone, Sentix said that the Fed might postpone plans for a second rate hike at the end of July, given the current macroeconomic situation.

The report was released at the same time as June’s Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI, which indicated the fastest contraction in construction output since 2009, plunging below expectations. The sector took a major hit due to uncertainty over the outcome of the EU membership referendum, and Markit said the extent and speed of the downturn in the face of political and economic uncertainty is a clear warning flag for the wider post-Brexit economic outlook.

Meanwhile, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is showing that about 42.9% of traders are long the EUR/USD at the time of writing. The SSI is mainly used as a contrarian indicator, implying possible strength ahead for the EUR/USD.

You can find more info about the DailyFX SSI indicator here.

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart: July 4, 2016

--- Written by Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Oded Shimoni, e-mail oshimoni@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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