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GBP/USD Trading Lower as UK Inflation Figures Miss Expectations

GBP/USD Trading Lower as UK Inflation Figures Miss Expectations

Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst

Talking Points:

- The British Pound trading lower versus other major currencies

- UK’s Core CPI at 1.2%, below expectations

- Headline CPI falls to 0.3% year-on-year vs 0.5% prior and expected

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The British Pound traded lower versus other major currencies (at the time this report was written), after the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures released today showed inflation slowed in April.

Headline CPI figure showed an annual rise of 0.3% percent, below the prior and expected reading of 0.5%. The month on month figure came below expectations as well, by printing 0.1% versus the expected figure of 0.3%, which was below the prior 0.4%.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile factors such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, eased to 1.2% from the prior figure of 1.5%, and was below an expected 1.4% print.

Looking into the report, the Office for National Statistics signaled the causes for the drop in the CPI figures as lower cost of air fares and clothes.

CPI readings are a key measure for the BoE in deciding appropriate monetary policy. In their latest rate decision, the BoE kept policy unchanged, and warned that a “Brexit” from the European Union could bring lower growth, higher unemployment, and higher inflation.The bank also lowered growth projections for 2016 to 2% versus the prior 2.2%, while also lowering projections slightly for 2017 and 2018.

As was mentioned earlier today by DailyFX Currency Strategist Ilya Spivak, News-flow out of the UK has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since early April, hinting at a downside surprise. With inflation far from the BoE target of 2%, hinting that tightening is still some way off, and Brexit concerns in the background, it seems the CPI figures missing expectations today might have added to an overall uncertain view for the UK economy, and British Pound declined versus other major currencies.

Meanwhile, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is showing that about 50.73% of FXCM’s traders are long the GBP/USD at the time of writing, implying a lack of directional conviction for the pair by the retail trading crowd.

You can find more info about the DailyFX SSI indicator here

GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart: May 17, 2016

GBP/USD Trading Lower as UK Inflation Figures Miss Expectations

--- Written by Oded Shimoni, DailyFX Research

To contact Oded Shimoni, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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