News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Federal Reserve will release a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as well as the first ‘dots’ in the dot plot for 2024. Check out @CVecchioFX cover September Federal Reserve meeting live AT 1:45 PM ET !
  • $SPX holding support, 40m to go until the statement support, prior res $ES $SPY
  • ...I don't believe the markets will ever be okay with the Fed bowing out of stimulus. As market sentiment normalizes, speculative exposure increases proportionally, meaning there will always be a market premium to contend with. A form of the sociological 'normalization' effect
  • Equities pull back from session highs as traders eye the FOMC meeting at the top of the hour $ES $SPX $SPY
  • ...that is my take on the panic around tapering. I'm not advocating for expediting rate hikes, but to continuously punt easing back on stimulus by even a marginal amount only compounds the market's dependencies - increasing moral hazard.
  • 'The economy and markets are so strong that we can't reduce the $120 billion per month asset purchases. Further, if only we can continue this path for an indefinite future, the market will absorb the external risk on its own.'
  • Also, here is the schedule of FOMC meetings from now through the end of 2022. If the Fed doesn't signal taper today, next scheduled time is Nov 2nd and 'quarterly' event time is Dec 14th. Will taper be easier w/ one or two more high CPI updates?
  • Here is my FOMC scenario table going into the rate decision. While a delay in the taper call seems feasible with the market wobble, there will always be wobbles before and the existential threat of a mkt tantrum. Always a hostage?
  • Gold prices are pushing higher so far this week and the FOMC is waiting in the wings with their September rate decision. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • RT @CEOAdam: SO FASCINATING! Dogecoin Poll was by far my highest ever read tweet. In 24 hours, 4.2 million views, my most ever retweets, mo…
Aussie Dollar Little Moved After Caixin PMI Release, RBA Ahead

Aussie Dollar Little Moved After Caixin PMI Release, RBA Ahead

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar little changed post Caixin PMI report
  • Manufacturing PMI 49.4 in April versus 49.8 expected
  • Small response likely due to pre-positioning for the RBA

Having trouble trading the Australian Dollar? This may be why.

The Australian Dollar showed a tepid response against its major peers after China’s Caixin PMI crossed the wires. The gauge of the manufacturing sector showed a print of 49.4 in April, worse than the 49.8 forecasted by economists and lower than the 49.7 reading in March. A reading below 50.0 shows a contraction while a mark above indicates growth. This marks a 14th consecutive month in which the manufacturing sector contracted.

Perhaps a minimal reaction from the Aussie could be explained by the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy announcement. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 55 percent probability that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points. Such parameters could deter speculators from taking on large positions ahead of a potentially volatile event.

Meanwhile, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is showing a reading of -1.12 following the announcement, meaning that for every trader long the AUD/USD, there are 1.12 on the short side. The SSI is a contrarian indicator, implying further AUD/USD strength ahead.

Want to learn more about the DailyFX SSI indicator? Click here to watch a tutorial.

Aussie Dollar Little Moved After Caixin PMI Release, RBA Ahead

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.