Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
NZD/USD Rose After New Zealand Posted Unexpected Trade Surplus

NZD/USD Rose After New Zealand Posted Unexpected Trade Surplus

Bradley Kearns, Contributor


Talking Points:

  • NZD/USD rose after New Zealand’s first trade surplus since May 2015
  • Trade Balance NZ$8mil in Jan vs. –NZ$271m expected, –NZ$38mil prior
  • Markets still project at least one 25bps RBNZ rate cut within 12 months

See how retail traders are positioned in the New Zealand Dollar with the DailyFX SSI.

NZD/USD gained after New Zealand’s trade data posted the first surplus since May 2015. January’s figure was NZ$8 million, better than the expected deficit of -NZ$271 million and December’s revised print of –NZ$38 million. The 12-month year-to-date trade gap narrowed to –NZ$3.58 billion, smaller than the projected shortfall of –NZ$3.87 and the prior –NZ$3.53 billion result.

Looking at the report’s internals, exports fell less than expected to NZ$3.9 billion versus economists’ estimate of NZ$3.71 billion. Meanwhile, imports was trailed forecasts of NZ$3.95 billion, coming in at NZ$3.89 billion. This was the lowest reading since February 2015.

While the New Zealand Dollar appeared to find support in better-than-expected headline figures, it ought to be noted the priced-in monetary policy bets (as implied in front-end bond yields) were conspicuously unmoved. Indeed, financial markets continue to price in at least 25 basis points in RBNZ easing over the next twelve months and see a 28 percent probability of a cut at next month’s meeting.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.