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Australian Dollar Drops as Capex Estimates Fuel RBA Rate Cut Bets

Australian Dollar Drops as Capex Estimates Fuel RBA Rate Cut Bets

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD declines after Capex report crossed the wires
  • Private investment 0.8% in the 4Q versus -3.0% estimated
  • Future private capital expenditure is expected to decline

Losing Money Trading the Australian Dollar? This Might Be Why.

The Australian Dollar continued its decline against its US counterpart as the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its fourth quarter Private Capital Expenditure report. Investment increased 0.8 percent, beating the -3.0 percent analysts’ consensus. This also marks the fastest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2014. The prior figure was revised higher to -8.4 percent from -9.2 percent.

Although the data bodes well for domestic economic health, the markets appeared to focus on what future investment plans entail. For the upcoming 2015-2016 period, the Australian Bureau of Statistics forecasted that private investment will roughly increase by AU$123,956 million. This is 17.8 percent lower than the 2014-2015 period. Going from there, private capital expenditure is expected to decline by a further 19.5 percent to AU$82,572 million for 2016-2017.

After the report crossed the wires, Australian 2-year government bond yields declined more than 1 percent. Considering overnight index swaps are pricing in at least one RBA rate cut over the next 12 months, the markets appeared to see that happening sooner rather than later.

Australian Dollar Drops as Capex Estimates Fuel RBA Rate Cut Bets

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