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US Dollar Marks Time as Yields Rise at Bill Sales on Fed Hike Bets

US Dollar Marks Time as Yields Rise at Bill Sales on Fed Hike Bets

Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributing Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

  • USD little changed after Treasury auction
  • 3 and 6 month yields auctioned at new highs
  • Yields likely reflected building Fed rate hike bets

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The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index was little changed after the Treasury Department held its weekly bond auction. Three-month yields climbed to 0.135 percent from 0.110 last week. This is the highest level seen in three-month yields since February 28th, 2011. Six-month yields rose to 0.340 percent compared to last week’s return of 0.280 percent. This is the highest level seen since June 29th, 2009.

This week’s auction came after the Federal Reserve left the door open to a 2015 rate hike that is dependent on economic data. Last week, the US added 271K jobs in October, 87K more than what economists estimated. The markets are becoming more certain of a rate hike by the last FOMC meeting of the year. The spike in US government bond yields at this week’s auction likely reflected building Fed rate hike expectations in the near-term.

On Thursday, four Fed members are due to present speeches. Fed’s Bullard will speak on monetary policy, Lacker will participate in a monetary policy panel, Evans and Dudley will speak on the US economy as well as policy. With the last FOMC meeting of 2015 on December 16th, additional commentary from Fed members until then may reveal just how likely a rate hike will be.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.