News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇺🇸 Industrial Production YoY (APR) Actual: 16.5% Previous: 1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-14
  • 🇺🇸 Industrial Production MoM (APR) Actual: 0.7% Expected: 1% Previous: 2.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-14
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Industrial Production YoY (APR) due at 13:15 GMT (15min) Previous: 1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-14
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Industrial Production MoM (APR) due at 13:15 GMT (15min) Expected: 1% Previous: 1.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-14
  • Fed's Mester says policy is in a good place - Need to keep this route to bring more people into the labour market
  • 🇺🇸 Retail Sales MoM (APR) Actual: 0.0% Expected: 1% Previous: 9.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-14
  • 🇺🇸 Retail Sales MoM (APR) Actual: 0% Expected: 1% Previous: 9.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-14
  • 🇺🇸 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (APR) Actual: -0.8% Expected: 0.7% Previous: 9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-14
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.31%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 69.57%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ZNBFoJ5iGb
  • 🇮🇳 Balance of Trade Final (APR) Actual: $-15.09B Expected: $-15.2B Previous: $-13.93B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-14
USD/CAD Jumps Above C$1.3100 as BoC Cuts Growth Forecast

USD/CAD Jumps Above C$1.3100 as BoC Cuts Growth Forecast

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Bank of Canada downgrades Canadian GDP forecasts for Q4’15 through Q2’17.

- Core inflation remains stable, although weaker oil prices keep headline inflation depressed.

- USDCAD moves above C$1.3100.

The Bank of Canada released its quarterly Monetary Policy Report alongside its monthly rate decision today, and the Canadian Dollar is trading slightly lower in their collective wake. While the BoC kept rates on hold at 0.50% - as expected per a Bloomberg News survey – the catalyst for the moves in USDCAD and other CAD-crosses came from the contents of the MPR. Given the sustained drop in energy prices, the BoC sees energy investment continuing to fall through next year and as a result, growth levels softening through mid-2017.

Here’ are the BoC’s updated forecast figures:

USD/CAD Jumps Above C$1.3100 as BoC Cuts Growth Forecast

See the DailyFX economic calendar for the week of October 18, 2015

USDCAD 1-minute Chart: October 21, 2015

USD/CAD Jumps Above C$1.3100 as BoC Cuts Growth Forecast

Following the data, reflecting the market’s collective surprise at the downgrades to the Q4’15 to Q2’17 GDP figures, immediately priced in a weaker Canadian Dollar. USDCAD initially traded lower from C$1.3036 to as low as C$1.3018, but quickly rebounded once the 2015 to 2017 GDP forecasts were revealed. At the time this report was written, USDCAD had rallied approximately +0.75% from its lows, and was trading at C$1.3102 after peaking at C$1.3116.

If there is hope for the Canadian Dollar to recover, the foundation has already been laid this week. The election of Justin Trudeau as Canadian prime minister could usher in new government spending policies (Mr. Trudeau platformed on running a budget deficit to fund infrastructure investments). Exchange rate theory suggests (under the Mundell-Fleming or IS-LM-BoP model) that expansive fiscal policy should boost a currency’s value; if the Canadian government is about to unveil stimulus measures, the Canadian Dollar could be in line for a longer-term benefit as the economy outperforms the BoC’s now more pessimistic forecasts.

Read more: AUD/USD Losing Triangle, EUR/AUD Breaking Out Pre-ECB

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES