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Australian Dollar Declines as Retail Sales Data Fuel RBA Rate Cut Bets

Australian Dollar Declines as Retail Sales Data Fuel RBA Rate Cut Bets

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • AUDUSD declines more than 0.5 percent in morning trade
  • July’s Australian Retail Sales (MoM) fell to a 14-month low
  • Disappointing data likely ignited RBA rate cut anticipation

The Australian Dollar fell more than 0.5 percent against its US counterpart after a disappointing set of data crossed the wires. The former country’s July retail sales came in at -0.1 percent (MoM) versus 0.4 percent expected and 0.6 percent in June. In addition to being the lowest reading since May 2014, it was also the first contraction since then.

In its most recent statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia mentioned that consumption growth has picked up since its recent trough in 2013. During its September interest rate decision, the central bank maintained language of a data-dependent policy outlook.

The first contraction of retail sales in 14 months probably caught the market off-guard. Looking at Australian front-end government bond yields (2-year), they fell more than 0.8 percent alongside the Aussie’s decline. This suggests that the data likely fueled RBA rate cut expectations.

Australian Dollar Declines as Retail Sales Data Fuel RBA Rate Cut Bets

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