News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.80% Silver: 0.72% Oil - US Crude: -0.68% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/TSbPggx2CP
  • RT @NYFedResearch: The majority of businesses say they expect to see a rebound in revenues post-pandemic in response to special questions i…
  • Quite the jump in inflation expectations in the US. The five-year breakeven inflation rate holding near its multi-year high 2.55%. Expected change in Fed Funds rate through end of 2022 at 16bps (~65% probability of standard hike) https://t.co/tY9w29x6nb
  • 🇺🇸 Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (APR) Actual: 3.7% Previous: 3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-16
  • 🇺🇸 Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel (APR) Actual: 2.7% Previous: 2.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-16
  • 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (APR) Actual: 86.5 Expected: 89.6 Previous: 84.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-16
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.30%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 79.56%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ETlEj4lmTj
  • Merkel succession rivals hold secret talks to settle candidacy - BBG $EUR
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.93% Gold: 0.67% Oil - US Crude: -0.49% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/YzIMVFKY8h
  • Italy PM Draghi: Bringing forward easing of restrictions in many areas to April 26th. #Italy $EUR
Leaked Fed Staff Forecasts Project Hike Pace Softer Than FOMC

Leaked Fed Staff Forecasts Project Hike Pace Softer Than FOMC

John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist, Yash Gandhi,

Talking Points

  • The Federal Reserve accidently released its staff projections from June five years early
  • Most notable in the leaked document was a more dovish view for interest rates through 2015
  • US Dollar index tumbles on the back of Federal Reserve leak

At 15:00 GMT, the Federal Reserve’s public website released projections for the last 2 quarters of 2015 and a 5-year economic outlook from the central bank’s staff. The data was inadvertently leaked on June 29th, and was made public by the Federal Reserve today. According to the staff projections, a forecast for one 25 basis point hike is on the horizon for 2015. That is notably more dovish than what the FOMC leadership itself has projected as of its most recent forecasts. Their consensus is calling for 50 basis points (to an average of 0.625%) of tightening - two 25 basis point increases - through the end of the year.

Building on the expected deviation from the Fed Board’s views, the staff projections increasingly diverged with dovish projections of a benchmark rate of 1.26 percent through the end of 2016 and 2.12 percent through 2017. That compares to their superiors’ expectations of 1.75 percent and 2.875 percent respectively.

Beyond the rate discrepancy, the Fed saw a stable outlook for the next 5-years and forecasted GDP in 2015 of 2.31%. Further out, the group sees GDP slowing to 1.75% in 2019 and 1.74% by 2020 The Fed added that the unemployment rate would stabilize at 5% through 2027 and inflation would stay below the 2 percent target through 2020.

The US Dollar Index - sensitive to the central interest rate - tumbled in response to the news. Dollar strength pronounced through 2015. A softened rate forecast from the Fed’s staff does not seem to have turned this bullish / hawkish outlook. The Greenback’s slip holds well within the broader bull trend fostered through the past 15 months.

Leaked Fed Staff Forecasts Project Hike Pace Softer Than FOMCLeaked Fed Staff Forecasts Project Hike Pace Softer Than FOMC

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES