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Volatility and Future Challenges Highlight Second G20 Meeting

Volatility and Future Challenges Highlight Second G20 Meeting

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking points:

  • Group of 20 major financial officials conduct second meeting of 2015
  • Key risks moving forward include exchange rate (FX) volatility and low inflation
  • Challenges moving forward include geopolitical tensions and high levels of public debt

Finance Ministers and central bankers from the venerated G-20 met in Turkey to discuss top global themes for 2015. As has been the case recently, the tone struck was one of balanced optimism. Notes of balanced economic outlook and progress since the previous meeting were clouded, however, by concerns that have garnered greater attention by the market and media over the past months. A fragile and generally dovish global economy put the Fed’s split over a rate hike in June in relief as officials noted concern with FX volatility. Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Babacan remarked that Fed communications will be very important. Beyond the central bank’s influence, G20 officials said they would keep a close monitor on financial market volatility and vowed to take action should the situation warrant.

According to the communique, members also said key challenges moving forward include geopolitical tensions and high levels of public debt. G20 officials suggested accommodative policies are needed in advanced economies - such as the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan’s QE programs – given current conditions. Greece’s economic situation was reportedly not an official topic of conversation for the event; however officials did remark on the debt-laden economy on the sidelines.

G20 Official Communique Highlights:

  • Risks to the global economic outlook have become more balanced
  • Key risks moving forward include exchange rate (FX) volatility and low inflation
  • Challenges moving forward include geopolitical tensions and high levels of public debt
  • Will keep close monitor of financial market volatility
  • Vow to take appropriate action on market volatility/instability as it arises
  • Believes accommodative policies are needed in advanced economies (such as the ECB and BoJ QE)
  • Notes policy settings should be carefully calibrated and clearly communicated

Officials Concern for Greece:

  • German Finance Minister Schaeuble says Greece may be the topic of discussion on IMF sidelines
  • Greece’s main creditors reportedly unwilling to allow its exit from Euro unless government backtracks
  • French Minister of Finance Sapin says Greece absolutely needs to do necessary reforms

Preparing for the Fed’s Tightening:

  • Turkey Deputy Prime Minister Babacan says discussed Fed communication being very important
  • Chinese Minister of Finance Zhu says Fed will raise rates gradually

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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