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Sweden: Industrial Activity up in December, Down on the Year

Sweden: Industrial Activity up in December, Down on the Year

Walker England, Kara Dailey,

Talking Points:

  • Industrial Production and Orders increase m/m, yet remain down on the year
  • Service Production behaves in the opposite manner
  • USDSEK challenges resistance post NFP

While finishing the year strong, industrial production and orders struggled to recover to pre-crisis levels; the first index falling 1.6% in volume, when measured year-over-year, and the later falling 11.4% percent. The exception to this pattern: service production, which decreased in the final month of 2014, but increased 3.7% on the year. The weakened productivity can largely be explained by Sweden’s broader labor market comprised of fewer manufacturing jobs.

Month-over-month, from November to December, industrial production increased 1.7%, yet total production for the year remained negative with volume down 1.9%. Cumulatively while all subsectors were fairly weak, it was the electrical equipment industry that showed the least activity, declining 6.5%. Year-over-year the greatest impediment to growth was the motor vehicle industry which fell by 17.3% while the industry for coke and refined petroleum products aided expansion, increasing 42.9%.

The report for industrial orders is similar, with the index increasing 5.1% month-over-month while cumulatively decreasing 3.3% for the year. From November to December the strongest development came from the transport and other equipment industry (+62.4%) while the greatest decline came from the industry for fabricated metal products (-10.8%). Through the entirety of 2014 domestic market orders were down by 5.8% while orders in the export market only fell by 1.6%.

As the contrarian indicator, service production increased by 3.7% year-over-year despite decreasing month-over-month in December by 0.2 percentage points. Notable time framed discrepancies: the art, entertainment, and recreation industry which decreased by 3.5% (m/m) yet increased by the same proportion year-over-year; the motor vehicle industry decreased 3.3% (m/m) yet increased 4.3% (y/y).

USDSEK Daily Chart

dailyke USDSEK daily chart February 2015

Chart Created by Walker England Using MarketScope2.0

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.