News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Copper is on track to make a sixth consecutive monthly gain as prices inch towards its all-time high. The global backdrop remains supportive despite a short-term pause in the rally. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/STEYeIG042 https://t.co/R794ENkS3c
  • Retail trader signals still hint that the Dow Jones and S&P 500 may be at risk, placing the focus on year-long rising trendlines to see if dominant upside biases hold.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/lFpzIFNmzW https://t.co/FoHTLDJWJe
  • The path for the Japanese Yen seems to favor the downside looking at a majors-based index. USD/JPY may rise within its Ascending Channel, but there is some scope for a healthy correction. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/7XFJiCYYEM https://t.co/KfLyB2t1jP
  • The British Pound’s recent slip lower against its major counterparts may prove short-lived. Key levels to watch for GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP. Get your $GBP market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/Y48cF2qi9M https://t.co/ia3Bgq0ZTp
  • Senate Democrats reach deal on jobless aid -BBG
  • The US Dollar faces its next key tests against ASEAN FX following gains in USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/THB. Are the breakouts losing momentum? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/joPnWIcxEN https://t.co/4QAlUyD98V
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 National People's Congress due at 00:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-06
  • Positive vaccine progress, fiscal stimulus hopes and an unperturbed Federal Reserve may open the door for long-term Treasury yields to continue pressing higher, and in turn weigh on gold prices. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/TdGhZ82s8r https://t.co/w6YS6Gl11K
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.07% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.24% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.36% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.41% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.50% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/EK7xQumFxO
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.33% Gold: 0.21% Silver: -0.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/P7gJseotDu
Retail Sales Collapse, US Dollar Slammed as 30Y Yield Hits Record Low

Retail Sales Collapse, US Dollar Slammed as 30Y Yield Hits Record Low

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations mildly at +252K.

- 30Y US Treasury Bond yield falls to new all-time low at 2.393%.

- EURUSD quickly rallies back above $1.1840.

It’s been a terrible start to 2015 for US economic data, and that trend continued today with the biggest miss in the Advance Retail Sales report since May 2010. The December consumption figures were roundly disappointing, even when adjusting the data for the drop in oil prices (consensus forecasts were skewed negative due to the impact of reduced revenues for gas stations, for example).

Here’s a summary of the data this morning that’s responsible for US Dollar price action:

- USD Advance Retail Sales (DEC): -0.9% versus -0.1% expected, from +0.4% (m/m).

- USD Retail Sales less Autos (DEC): -1.0% versus 0.0% expected, from +0.1% (m/m).

- USD Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (DEC): -0.3% versus +0.5% expected, from +0.6% (m/m).

Following the data release, the US Dollar was slammed across the board, in large part thanks to US Treasury yields collapsing across the long-end of the curve. The 10-year note yield fell below 1.800% for the first time since August 2012 (the height of the US debt ceiling/ratings crisis) and the 30-year bond yield fell as 2.393% at the time this report was written (the lowest yield on record, eclipsing what was seen around the 2008 financial crisis).

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Wednesday, January 14, 2015.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: January 14, 2015 Intraday

Retail Sales Collapse, US Dollar Slammed as 30Y Yield Hits Record Low

EURUSD rallied to a high of $1.1845 after the report, having risen from $1.1775 in the minutes beforehand. Fresh yearly and nine-year lows were set earlier in the session at $1.1726; needless to say, it’s been a volatile session.

The fragility of market sentiment will be tested today as positioning is very one-sided: Senior Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele wrote on Monday about the largest speculative long position on record in the futures market. Yields may feed into a covering rally, too: on January 6, we first noted that net-short speculative positions in US Treasury noteswere at their highest level since early-2010.

Read more: Momentum Gathering Pace in EUR-crosses - Watch EUR/USD 5-EMA

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES