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Hungary Reports a Trade Surplus: EURHUF Stalls Near Resistance

Hungary Reports a Trade Surplus: EURHUF Stalls Near Resistance

Walker England, Kara Dailey,

Talking Points:

  • Hungary records trade surplus in November equivalent to EUR 832 million
  • Government Sector Deficit stands at 2.6%, below the full year 2.9% target
  • EURHUF stalls near resistance near 320.99

On Friday the Hungarian Central Statistics Office reported a positive trade balance for the month of November. The surplus is likely to aid the government in extending their balanced budget from the 3rd quarter of 2014 into the 4th.

According to the first estimate, Hungary recorded a HUF trade surplus equivalent to 832 million Euro in November. The figure—derived from subtracting the share of imports (EUR 6.8 billion) from the share of exports (EUR 7.6 billion)—indicates a 10% increase in the trade surplus when compared to November 2013. Broken down, exports increased by 3.2% while imports only grew by 2.4%.

However, when assessed year-to-date (January-November) the trade surplus was 164 million less than that recorded in the first eleven months of 2013. The value of exports only grew by 3.5% while that of imports grew by 4.1%.

The country’s year-over-year trade surplus will likely aid them in achieving their full year debt to GDP ratio of 2.9%. In quarters one through three the general government sector deficit measured 2.6% of GDP—a figure already below the full year target. At HUF 573.4 billion, the deficit registered 0.4 pp below that of Q1-Q3 in 2013. Expenditures remained on track as revenues expanded by 7.2%, due to increases in social contributions, and 7.9% due to various forms of increased tax revenue. In Q3 alone the deficit was shrunk by 88 billion forint.

EURHUF Daily Chart

dailyfx euro forint daily chart

Chart Created by Walker England Using MarketScope2.0

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