We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/nUvvI3WQpx
  • Australian Dollar is up fractionally this week with Aussie stalling just below the yearly range highs. Here are the levels that matter on the $AUDUSD technical chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/jYzBK1qH4s https://t.co/gYj4tFbsGS
  • What is the road ahead for equities this coming week? Check out my fundamental outlook below! #DowJones #SP500 #DAX30 #FTSE100 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2020/07/11/Dow-Jones-SP-500-DAX-30-FTSE-100-Outlook-Stocks-Week-Ahead.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/HjIBDKqwvO
  • #Gold price gains seem to depend on monetary stimulus expansion and may turn lower as contraction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet underpins the US Dollar. Get your #metals update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/8NHLc8jdhw https://t.co/0YYKXqtY9V
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/OjTZOQEytM https://t.co/DDCWX1In7k
  • The US Dollar is pressured as rising coronavirus cases fail to dent 2021 GDP bets. Could the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso and Malaysian Ringgit rise? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/u1qhaIGGoC https://t.co/kvFgxQjLb0
  • The ASX 200 and AUD/JPY are at risk of losses as cases of Covid-19 continue to climb in Victoria, Australia’s second-most populous state. Get your #ASX market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/O0LNvhy4eY https://t.co/mS9vLeVU5Y
  • The Dow Jones could fall based on positioning signals, will the growth-linked Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar follow? If so, what are the technical barriers ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/yJrlR5C00P https://t.co/W45z2yNjr0
  • Further gains in USD/IDR could be curbed as USD/PHP establishes a floor around 2017 lows. USD/MYR may fall next as USD/SGD fast approaches a key falling trend line.Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9JgZm2n8Fl https://t.co/Yg6WSFxt8T
  • The New Zealand Dollar is aiming higher, with NZD/USD eyeing fresh yearly highs while AUD/NZD may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders chart pattern. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/osFxXvq5xF https://t.co/zcmqsFR9tg
USDRUB Spikes, Central Bank of Russia and Putin Respond

USDRUB Spikes, Central Bank of Russia and Putin Respond

2014-12-04 17:21:00
Rob Pasche, Kara Dailey,
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Following USDRUB spike, CBR intervenes in the FX market selling 700 million USD
  • Russian GDP could shrink to as low as 0.8% next year
  • Putin to repatriate funds lost during capital flight through amnesty

A sharp spike in the USD/RUB on December 1st necessitated a central bank intervention and invoked follow- up commentary during President Vladimir Putin’s annual address to the Federal Assembly. In spite of moving to free-float the ruble, the CBR was left with little choice but to revert to old tactics, intervening once more in the FX market. Their efforts to stabilize the currency were praised by Vladimir Putin during his assembly speech. Also addressed by the Russian leader—landmark events, notably Crimea, and Russia’s investment climate within a legislative framework.

In a November 28th press release, the CBR announced their intent to enforce the 2 billion USD limit on the amount of ruble liquidity provided. First introduced on November 11th, the action was meant to limit speculative activity and reinforce FX market stability. The renewed initiative went unnoticed.

As a result, immediately following the spike on December 2nd the CBR sold 700 million USD in a bid to overcome sellers and curb the USDRUB advancement. The transaction brings year to date FX reserves spent defending the ruble to nearly 74 billion dollars. Taking additional measure, on December 4th, the central bank set the minimum interest rate on all FX repos equal to the LIBOR + 0.5%. Further intervention may be executed without notice, as the ruble has deviated substantially from fundamentally reasonable values. Further analysis should come from the key rate decision to be held on December 11th.

Also making waves this week—the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Early this week Deputy Economy Minister Alexei Vedev conceded, that given recent developments, GDP could fall to as low 0.8% next year. This statement comes in the week following Economic Development Minister, Alexei Ulyukayev’s projection of 1.2% given during the parliamentary hearings of the Federation Council. With economic sentiment surrounding the economy quickly changing, Putin set out the provide reassurance during his annual address today to the Federal Assembly.

Two topics were of prominence during the president’s speech at St. George Hall: the state of Russia’s investment climate and the relationship between Russia and Crimea. In support of the CBR, Putin proposed amnesty for capital returning to Russia. The goal, to repatriate much of the more than 125 billion in capital reported to have already fled the country. As incentive, those participating will not be subject to legal proceedings or criminal interrogations.

Sticking to the investment theme, the president also highlighted Russia’s financial commitment to the wellbeing of Ukraine. In addition to the energy company, Gazprom’s, 5.5 billion dollar contribution, the Finance Ministry has invested 25 billion dollars in the former Soviet state. Direct reference was also made to Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula which is said to be “of strategic importance for Russia as the spiritual source of the development of a multifaceted but solid Russian nation and centralized Russian state”. In likening the region to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem Putin emphasized the historical importance of Crimea and reiterated Russia’s desire to work with partner nations, but their willingness to act unilaterally in protection of their legitimate interests.

Given the elevated level of uncertainty, Russia’s currency continues to depreciate at a rapid pace. With the USD/RUB going parabolic, risks are heightened, making trading in either direction dangerous.

USD/RUB Daily Chart

dailyfx dollar ruble chart.

Chart Created by Rob Pasche Using MarketScope2.0

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.