News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/RSHYD7kI4B
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/dWaWQ0MK1V https://t.co/BAUGbFNJ9d
  • IHS Markit “Services have once again been especially hard hit, but manufacturing has seen growth almost stall, blamed on a cocktail of COVID-19 and Brexit, which has led to increasingly widespread supply delays, rising costs and falling export" https://t.co/4lzdYJNqLu
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (JAN) Actual: 38.8 Expected: 45 Previous: 49.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (JAN) Actual: 52.9 Expected: 54 Previous: 57.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (JAN) Actual: 40.6 Expected: 45.5 Previous: 50.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • Litecoin IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long Litecoin since Nov 25 when Litecoin traded near 81.55. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Litecoin weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/48NRtK0I8O
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Flash (JAN) due at 09:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 45 Previous: 49.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (JAN) due at 09:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 54 Previous: 57.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Flash (JAN) due at 09:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 45.5 Previous: 50.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
USDRUB Surges on OPEC’s Decision to Retain 30 M b/d Output Target

USDRUB Surges on OPEC’s Decision to Retain 30 M b/d Output Target

Walker England, Kara Dailey,

Talking Points:

  • Entering 2015 OPEC retains the 30 million barrels per day target established in 2011
  • 1.1 million b/d demand increase to be offset by a non-OPEC production increase of 1.36 m. b/d
  • From November 27th USOil has lost 13.4% of its value causing the ruble to lose 15.35% of its value against the US Dollar

Amidst its search for price stability, the oil market went without reprieve following the conclusion of the 166th OPEC Conference in Vienna. At the November 27th meeting, the 12 oil-exporting members agreed to leave the output target unchanged at 30 million barrels per day, a figure first implemented in 2011. After assessing the market’s outlook, definitive cuts in specific nations could not be established. This outcome likely indicates that OPEC is no longer able to balance the market alone—they need the aid of non-OEPC producers Mexico, Norway and Russia.

Despite expectations of a drastic cut, similar to the 2.2 million b/d reduction in 2008, OPEC was unable to devise an agreeable plan to constrict the future oil supply. Instead it was determined that price stability could be achieved without the loss of any one nation’s market share. The conference thus concluded that prices were not suppressed enough to inhibit economic growth nor deter the reinvestment of profits. Their statements credible, given November’s market report which cites global economic growth as steadily increasing from 3.2% in 2014 to 3.6% in 2015.

Furthermore, alongside GDP growth, demand for oil in 2015 is to increase by 1.1 million b/d while the population is to rise from 7.1 to 9 billion by 2040. With more than 60% of the population expected to live in cities the demand for cars, which is intrinsically linked to economic oil needs, is set to increase. However, escalated demand is to be offset by an increase in non-OPEC production equal to 1.36 million b/d and a 2.2% annual decline in average oil used in motor vehicles. Given this apparent growing role of non-OPEC producers in achieving equilibrium, OPEC President HE Abdourhman Ataher Al-Ahirish, emphasized, in his opening remarks, the need to collaborate and engage in dialogue with non-OPEC producers and oil companies in order to achieve price stability.

Perhaps no collaborative relationship is more important than that with Russia, the world’s largest exporter of petroleum products. Prior to attending the OPEC conference, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russia intends to maintain oil production at a level of 505-520 million tons a year (10 million b/d). Any reductions would thus not be contrived, but the result of natural forces; forces unlikely to arise given the economy’s present state as noted by CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina during a Federation Council meeting.

With the strategic goal of achieving low inflation near 4%, Nabiullina emphasized the need for Russia to take advantage of a weak ruble in creating opportunities for export growth and import substitution. From the November 27th one day loss of $5.81 per barrel the USDRUB has since surged from 46.623 to 53.781 causing the ruble to lose 15.35% of its value. With a further weakened ruble, Russia may see continued advances in select economic indicators including PMI which rose 0.5 points in November to 51.6.

USD/RUB 1W Chart

dailyfx usdrub 1 week chart.

Chart Created by Walker England Using MarketScope2.0

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES