News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/qtAmyhFU9A
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/S74APOiQ3y
  • Two of the main Euro-pairs, $EURUSD and $EURGBP, are being driven by very different drivers. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/Vd32Y6HKEr https://t.co/Lgb5z5V1Xa
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/9uPXNvDBS5
  • We ended this past week with another cliffhanger. The $SPX teeters on the edge of a breakdown from the post-pandemic recovery. While we have NFPs and other key data ahead, the markets are likely to remain fixated on yields. My outlook for next week: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/02/27/SP-500-Dollar-Reversal-Hinge-Not-On-NFPs-but-Markets-Risk-Imagination.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/mlNDDyTgex
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/70ZOJ0ZMwF
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/SyroornFf5
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4QhQGQ6 https://t.co/KrMcyZZqO7
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in $AUDUSD as the central bank is expected to retain the current course for monetary policy. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/WbcR9ER0qT https://t.co/TynsqCtPQ6
  • Gold has broken below a critical support confluence we’ve been tracking for months now and the risk remains for further losses while below this threshold in the weeks ahead. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/xgN2obaIWR https://t.co/H71ufPNkPg
Palladium: Range Bound with Upside Potential on Surging Car Sales

Palladium: Range Bound with Upside Potential on Surging Car Sales

Rob Pasche, Kara Dailey,
Palladium: Range Bound with Upside Potential on Surging Car Sales

Talking Points:

  • Global car sales increased 3.5% in September
  • PGM production down 45% in South Africa
  • Palladium has been trading between $730 and $810/ounce over the previous seven weeks

As the best performer year to date among precious metals, palladium looks to end its month long downtrend by trading within an 80 dollar range. Supply and demand side pressures from the automotive industry as well as the world’s largest palladium producers have resulted in this range bound scenario.

With the majority of palladium used in the manufacturing of catalytic converters, a recent surge in car sales and consequently production has placed upward pressure on the price of palladium. Total sales for 2014, as forecasted by Scotiabank, are to reach 72.12 million, up from 68.69 million in 2013. In part the forecast reflects a 3.5% advancement of global sales in September driven largely by a 10.4% increase in the auto sector of US Retail Sales. Further industry growth came from China, where demand was up 8.4% in the first half of the year, and Canada where sales reached an all-time annual record of 2 million cars. Matching the increase in demand, production increased 3.5% in Q2 as reported by OICA.

With roughly 3.5 grams of palladium per vehicle, for every one million vehicles produced about 100,000 ounces of Platinum Group Metals are required. Using today’s open price of 771.5, the average price of palladium in each car is approximately $87.00. With exports on the rise Scotiabank expects modest gains in sales to continue through 2015, likely placing more upward pressure on the price of palladium if all other factors are held constant.

In addition to global consumer demand, the actions of Russia and South Africa, who supply 80% of the world’s palladium, will also bear influence on its price. With a timeline of 6 months to refine palladium, South Africa is still recovering from a 5 month industrial strike that took place earlier this year. While total mining production decreased 10.1% on the year, that of PGM declined significantly more at 45%. In addition to supply shortages a looming deal, reportedly worth 2 billion dollars, between Norilsk Nickel and the Russian Central Bank set to conclude later this month, may increase palladium’s value as both sides will likely look to escalate prices.

Palladium has been range bound for the last 7 weeks between $730 and $810/ounce. Technical analysis gives us no indication where it might be headed next. If price reaches the top or the bottom of the range there could be a trading opportunity, but sitting on the sidelines might be the best course of action at this point.

XPD/USD 4 Hour Chart

dailyfx Palladium chart .

Chart Created by Rob Pasche Using MarketScope2.0

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES