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Dollar Strength Seemingly Unscathed by Mixed Nonfarm Payrolls

Dollar Strength Seemingly Unscathed by Mixed Nonfarm Payrolls

2014-11-07 14:25:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Tyler Amend,
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Talking Points:

- US Nonfarm Payrolls miss expectations by -21K at +214K.

- US unemployment rate ticks lowers to 5.8% as participation rate rises.

- EURUSD charges to $1.2441 before falling to fresh weekly lows.

The US Nonfarm Payrolls headline reading slipped to +214K for October, missing analyst estimates of +235K. The prior reading of +248K was revised higher to +256K, making the net-figure for the September and October only -10K below aggregate forecasts. The headline was probably the most disappointing aspect of the report, even as wage figures continue to be muted.

Instead, the US Dollar’s rebound after the headline figures were released can be predicated around the small drop in the US unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is derived from the Household Employment Survey, which showed that the US economy gained +683K jobs in October. Coupled with a one-tenth of one percent rise in the labor force participation rate, there is a clear picture that the US labor market is on sturdy ground, and perhaps even strengthening.

Here’s a summary of the data this morning that’s responsible for US Dollar price action:

- USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (OCT): +214K versus +235K expected, from +248K (revised higher to +256K).

- USD Change in Private Payrolls (OCT): +209K versus +225K expected, from +236K (revised to +244K).

- USD Unemployment Rate (OCT): 5.8% versus 5.9% expected, from 5.9%.

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, November 7th, 2014.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: November 7, 2014 Intraday

Dollar Strength Seemingly Unscathed by Mixed Nonfarm Payrolls

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Tyler Amend

EURUSD rallied to a high of $1.2441 before retracing all of its gains and continuing lower to a fresh weekly low of $1.2356. USD strength has been an overwhelming force across the majors since the initial knee-jerk reaction lower. EURUSD was trading at $1.2401 at the time this report was written.

Read more: Trade Setups in AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Ahead of NFPs

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist and Tyler Amend, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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