News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • DOJ expected to file antitrust action against Google in coming weeks according to AP News - BBG
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN +0.12% #BITCOINCASH -0.08% #ETHEREUM -0.22% #RIPPLE +0.26% #LITECOIN -0.55%
  • 🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (SEP) Actual: 79.4 Previous: 88.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.30% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/AxA4F2bdLO
  • Heads Up:🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (SEP) due at 21:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 88.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.86% Gold: 0.31% Oil - US Crude: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/KGhOU0JkGg
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.99%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 66.51%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/I8ErFM6ptJ
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.20% FTSE 100: 0.16% France 40: 0.13% Wall Street: -0.01% US 500: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ocJM79mXIK
  • Commodities Update: NYM WTI Crude 40.14 (+0.53), ICE Brent Crude 41.75 (-0.05%), NYM NYH Gasoline 119.10 (+0.82%). [delayed]
  • USD/CAD price reverses lower as the US Dollar surrenders recent gains back to the Loonie. Get your $USDCAD market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/gikRAF4Kh8 https://t.co/koyX0zf5w3
Norges Bank to Retain Rate on Balanced Economic Evolutions

Norges Bank to Retain Rate on Balanced Economic Evolutions

2014-10-21 18:30:00
Rob Pasche, Kara Dailey,
Share:

Talking Points

  • NGB is expected to retain the key policy rate (1.5%) from March of 2012
  • From October 1st: spot oil (-$12), forward oil (-$7.64)
  • A sell off toward 6.42 may provide opportunities to enter the market long USDNOK

Ahead of retail sales and unemployment data, Norges Bank is scheduled to announce their key policy rate on Thursday, October 23rd. Hesitant to introduce new monetary policy amidst encompassing market turmoil the MPC is expected to retain the current deposit rate of 1.5%. When considering developments pertaining to the global and domestic economy, as well as commodity markets NGB will likely address the downside risks, but balance them out with positive advancements. Such a neutral stance may favor the krone which has closed above Scotiabank’s Q4 USDNOK (6.35) outlook since September 23rd.

Global growth among Norway’s trading partners paints a mixed picture. While growth is expected to decrease in Japan and remain flat in Sweden and the Euro Area, GDP is expected to increase in the UK and the US, which combined account for 30% of Norway’s export demand. Domestically, despite investment in the housing(-10%),petroleum (-8%), and corporate(-4%) sectors declining in volume in 2014, relative to 2010-2013 averages, the inflation and output gap approaching 2015 is expected to narrow with inflation surpassing the output gap. A lower output gap would indicate a more efficient economy; as actual output becomes greater than potential output, demand increases creating inflationary pressures. If this view persists, it may offer some forward looking relief given September’s 0.2% CPI decline.

As Western Europe’s largest oil exporter, Norway’s domestic economy is dependent on the petroleum sector to a certain degree. At present oil is trading nearly 12 dollars a barrel lower than on October 1st, corresponding to a decline in the government’s NOK denominated petroleum revenues. However, the degree of dependence has been mitigated by a built up Government Pension Fund which has allowed Norway thus far to offset non-oil budget deficits through the sale of foreign exchange. Given this debt structures inability to be maintained indefinitely, it comes as a reprieve that the short term imbalance in cash flows may reverse as oil futures have only fallen comparatively 7.64 a barrel.

Despite a relatively balanced mid-term Norwegian economic outlook, the current market weaknesses are prevailing in the FX market. In the past month the US Dollar has rallied against the Norwegian Krone, breaking above its bullish channel. This leaves us ultimately bullish USDNOK but only after a sell off towards 6.42 kr. In the event there is a pullback the previous resistance level could become support.

USD/NOK Weekly Chart

dailyfx usd/nok weekly chart.

Chart Created By Rob Pasche Using MarketScope2.0

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES