News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCAD sold off aggressively last week, putting it into position to test the important 2017 low; trading bias is neutral to bearish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/sphxUAW9TB https://t.co/ZhsTeJOOM8
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/qP96xmgDVn
  • The pro-risk Australian Dollar may extend gains after the record miss in US jobs data, amplifying dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and keeping the Dow Jones and S&P 500 intact. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/yf8mPX3O3W https://t.co/uCCmjaxUhF
  • Who else is keeping close tabs on Dogecoin $DOGE this weekend? All eyes on Elon Musk @elonmusk, the proverbial 'Dogefather,' and his Saturday Night Live @nbcsnl performance kicking off at 11:30PM ET. The #crypto is already looking nice and perky following that trendline break! https://t.co/nrQsnlUqWj https://t.co/4lOz6NLQTG
  • There is some very interesting event risk over the opening half of this coming week of trade. It starts with Elon Musk hosting SNL tonight for Dogecoin traders and moves into US inflation data to as means to stir the ongoing Fed debate and Dollar https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/08/Dollar-Tumbles-Dow-Hits-Record-Highs-and-Dogecoin-Traders-Tune-In.html https://t.co/LXhjv7ToWC
  • It was a big week for Gold bulls and Gold prices broke out to fresh two-month-highs, finally taking-out the 1800 level along the way. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/D222Ni37Dv https://t.co/KcMYyx3Ro4
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/PjywaPeUsl
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/AjOSPzOFLb
  • What are some trading takeaways from 2020, as we jump into the new year? Find out with your free guide here: https://t.co/e7udCTJlmf #DailyfxGuides https://t.co/eqklbOEJMa
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/p9Pkkbo2zf
USDRUB Trades in Ascending Triangle Post Credit Downgrade

USDRUB Trades in Ascending Triangle Post Credit Downgrade

Kara Dailey,

Talking Points:

  • Moody’s revises long- term credit rating from Baa1 down to Baa2
  • Sanctions and retaliatory bans led to accelerating inflation, August (+0.4%)
  • A USD/RUB price break above 41.128 signals continuation of bullish trend

Friday, Moody’s Investors Service re-evaluated Russia’s ability to fulfill their debt obligations relative to the country’s intrinsic value. A noted change in the quality of the bonds was reflected in the downgrading of long-term debt from Baa1 to Baa2 and short-term debt from P1 to P2. The change puts the sovereign in each class’s middle range and indicates that financial commitments will be subject to moderate credit risk on adverse economic conditions and may contain speculative elements. The change in creditworthiness was prompted by accelerating inflation, higher interest rates and a continually depreciating foreign exchange rate.

Despite a low mid-term growth prospect, inflation has accelerated as import bans and sanctions imposed by the U.S. and E.U. have driven up prices in Russia. CPI jumped to 8.0% in August from 7.6% in July, generating the highest reading in 2 years. Near term relief from this cost-push inflation is unlikely as September’s cease-fire did little to alleviate global tensions. If inflation continues to rise at a rapid pace the Central Bank may be forced to raise already heightened interest rates to prevent a price induced recession. As a result the financial system is considered to be more susceptible to event risk, thereby confirming a revised credit rating.

Furthermore, a weakened ruble exchange rate has shaken consumer confidence and led to a wider economic dislocation risk. As capital flight in the private sector has reached its highest level since 2008, totaling $85.2 billion from January to September, investors have lost access to borrowing in foreign markets to finance operations. In response, from the week of January 3rd, the RCB has depleted foreign reserves by $58.8 billion to provide liquidity to the public and private sectors. The negative impact on the balance sheet has strained the country’s creditworthiness, contributing to the downgraded debt rating.

While this downgrade alone cannot be used to forecast the markets future direction, a price break above the 2014 high 41.128 will signal a bullish trend continuation.

USD/RUB Daily Chart

dailyfx usdrub daily chart.

Chart Created By Walker England Using MarketScope2.0

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES