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Russia Announces FX Repo: USD/RUB Finds Support in Bullish Channel

Russia Announces FX Repo: USD/RUB Finds Support in Bullish Channel

2014-10-17 19:44:00
Rob Pasche, Kara Dailey,
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Talking Points

  • Ruble Band Further Adjusted Up to the Range: 37.25-46.25
  • In Response Russian Central Bank Introduces FX Repos Amounting to $ 50 Billion
  • USD/RUB Remains in Bullish Channel, but Finds Support

From the October 8th Ruble Band elevation the operating range has been adjusted up 5 times, presently spanning from 37.25 to 46.25. In addition to a continued decline in oil prices, sanctions preventing the acquisition of FX in the international debt market have led the Ruble to be among the worst performers against the USD declining 20% from July’s high of 33.090. In response the Bank of Russia has announced their intent to implement a new instrument—the FX Repo.

This swap between the US Dollar, Euro and Ruble is intended to level out spikes in the ruble’s exchange rate and provide liquidity to banks. The auctions, in aggregate of $50 billion, will be conducted weekly commencing October 29th and 30th and extend through mid-2016. The two formats available will be one week and 28 days, with each offering an interest rates based on the LIBOR for the corresponding currency plus 2 or 2.5 percentage points depending on the auctions length. The amount available for proceeding auctions will be announced at the start of the week.

Currently the USD/RUB sits near support at the lower end of a bullish channel, providing potential opportunities for traders to initially buy the pair or add to existing positions. Stop losses can be placed below the channel while profit targets can be placed near the top of the channel.

USD/RUB 4Hour Chart

dailfx USDRUB 4hour chart.

Chart Created by Robert Pasche Using MarketScope2.0

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