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Bullish USD Undermined by Shaky Durable Goods Orders

Bullish USD Undermined by Shaky Durable Goods Orders

2014-09-25 14:05:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Durable Goods Orders come in shy of analyst estimates at -18.2% m/m.

- Durables Ex Transportation comes in at +0.7% m/m ahead of estimates.

- Initial Jobless claims jump to 293K versus the 280K prior. Shaky

US Durable Goods Orders for August came in short of market estimates, with the headline reading slipping to -18.2% versus analyst estimates of -18.0% from the prior month, and the US Dollar is absorbing the weakness modestly. The print is a noticeably lower reading than the prior reading of +22.6%. A look at the core figures, Durables Ex Transportation August reading came in just above analyst estimates at 0.7%.

Why the wild figures? It’s important to note that the Durable Goods Orders were severely distorted due to a large July airshow order with Boeing Co.It’s not surprising then that market participants are paying more attention to the core figure.

Here’s a summary of the data this morning that’s put a halt on the US Dollar’s intraday rally:

- Durable Goods Orders (AUG): -18.2% versus -18.0% expected, from +22.5% (m/m).

- Durables ex Transports (AUG): +0.7% versus +0.6% expected, from -0.5% (m/m).

- Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 20): 293K versus 296K expected, from 281K.

- Continuing Claims (SEP 13): 2439K versus 2440K expected, from 2432K.

See the US Dollar economic calendar for Thursday, September 25, 2014.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: September 25, 2014 Intraday

Bullish USD Undermined by Shaky Durable Goods Orders

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Despite the limited market reaction to US Durable Goods data, it appears that EURUSD may continue its downward trend. After a small run to $1.2726 the pair began to trade sideways and can’t seem to manage a rally in what has been a relentless bearish trend. EURUSD has broken through several major Fib levels from the 2012 low to the 2013 high and may continue on towards $1.2500 over the coming weeks.

Read more: Silver Breakdown Hints at USD Turning Point; EUR/USD, USD/CAD Not Done

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist and Tyler Amend, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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