News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/zPzJAxBJxt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/uf6KEYTes5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/gRjdVfbg66
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/mLLGqYUygY
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/HUYJzEkYiT
  • #Gold prices put in a major breakout last month and, so far, buyers have held the line. But a really big Fed meeting is on the calendar for this week. Can Gold bulls hold? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/NGRTSfceOW https://t.co/QkSUORIQE2
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/PHK2sqB1jV
  • Top event risk for more than just the Dow and Dollar this week is the Wednesday #FOMC rate decision. What the markets expect sets the tone for how the event impacts price action. My run down of the week and Fed decision: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/12/Dollar-and-SP-500-Breaks-Must-Abide-the-FOMC-Decision-This-Week.html https://t.co/Huvth4f706
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/AkE7bFRWAt
  • $GBPUSD continues to trade in ranges as volatility dwindles. UK data to play second fiddle to FOMC. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/T0Eg4KaENB https://t.co/GMmZa5L0Il
US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- August NFPs miss significantly at +142K, but Unemployment Rate drops to 6.1%.

- US Dollar retraces after weaker data; just traded to highest levels of 2014 after ECB.

- EURUSD holds below $1.3000, USDJPY flirts with ¥105.00.

The August Nonfarm Payrolls report was much worse than market participants expected, yet the market isn’t treating the data as bad as it appears on the surface. The headline figure missed by some -88K at +142K overall, an affront to the >+200K ADP Employment report seen yesterday. Furthermore, the reading fell below the lowest estimate gathered by Bloomberg News, of +190K.

With the labor force participation rate decreasing by one-tenth to 62.8%, the Unemployment Rate was able to contract by one-tenth of a percent as well, to 6.1%, in line with expectations. Yet as the wage growth figures appeared stagnant with no indication that a wave of inflation is coming – thus necessitating an accelerated rate hike timeline from the Fed – there is very little to like about this jobs report overall.

After a strong run higher, the US Dollar is trading lower around the data and US yields have slipped. Here’s a look at the data:

- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (AUG): +142K versus +230K expected, from +212K (revised higher from +209K).

- Change in Private Payrolls (AUG): +134K versus +214K expected, from +213K (revised higher from +198K).

- Unemployment rate (AUG): 6.1% as expected from 6.2%.

- Participation Rate (AUG): 62.8% from 62.8%.

See the US Dollar economic calendar for Friday, September 5, 2014.

US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

The yield environment has been mixed for the US Dollar across the three timeframes we examine. Yields have dropped in the belly of the curve on the day after the payrolls miss; yet longer-duration instruments have seen their yields rise over the past week. At the moment, our attention is on the 10-year US Treasury Note yield, as it has traded to the tune of a +0.649 correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY) on a 20-day rolling basis.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: September 5, 2014 Intraday

US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

With US yields moving lower, the US Dollar has seen losses develop across the majors, in particular against the Euro and the Japanese Yen. The EURUSD traded in a 42-pip range around the announcement, trading between $1.2947 and $1.2989. At the time this report was written, EURUSD was seen at $1.2970. USDJPY was struggling as well, having traded off of its daily high of ¥105.71 to ¥104.93.

Read more: Pre-NFP Setups Show Strong Yet Vulnerable USDOLLAR

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES