News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/UTWxbnNz7M https://t.co/y5YcxUXJIe
  • As we near the US open...😟 Wall Street down 1.72% (474 points) Nasdaq 100 down 1.08% (125 points) S&P 500 down 1.46% (49 points) @DailyFXTeam Prices via @IGcom
  • 🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (23/OCT) Actual: 1.7% Previous: -0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • 🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (23/OCT) Actual: 1.7 Previous: -0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • $AUDUSD getting absolutely hammered at the moment, down over 0.5% since the London session opened Next key support level seems to come in at the 0.7070 mark with a break below carving a path for price to retest the monthly low (0.7020) $AUD #technicalanalysis https://t.co/9ynzvhSNK2
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.51%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.45%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PpTagTe3eM
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (23/OCT) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.56% Silver: -0.70% Oil - US Crude: -3.89% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/Y9FMU0wUMo
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/UvqOCYfxgX
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.20% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.34% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.35% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.42% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.50% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ZcpUZzcGyf
US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

2014-09-05 13:25:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- August NFPs miss significantly at +142K, but Unemployment Rate drops to 6.1%.

- US Dollar retraces after weaker data; just traded to highest levels of 2014 after ECB.

- EURUSD holds below $1.3000, USDJPY flirts with ¥105.00.

The August Nonfarm Payrolls report was much worse than market participants expected, yet the market isn’t treating the data as bad as it appears on the surface. The headline figure missed by some -88K at +142K overall, an affront to the >+200K ADP Employment report seen yesterday. Furthermore, the reading fell below the lowest estimate gathered by Bloomberg News, of +190K.

With the labor force participation rate decreasing by one-tenth to 62.8%, the Unemployment Rate was able to contract by one-tenth of a percent as well, to 6.1%, in line with expectations. Yet as the wage growth figures appeared stagnant with no indication that a wave of inflation is coming – thus necessitating an accelerated rate hike timeline from the Fed – there is very little to like about this jobs report overall.

After a strong run higher, the US Dollar is trading lower around the data and US yields have slipped. Here’s a look at the data:

- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (AUG): +142K versus +230K expected, from +212K (revised higher from +209K).

- Change in Private Payrolls (AUG): +134K versus +214K expected, from +213K (revised higher from +198K).

- Unemployment rate (AUG): 6.1% as expected from 6.2%.

- Participation Rate (AUG): 62.8% from 62.8%.

See the US Dollar economic calendar for Friday, September 5, 2014.

US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

The yield environment has been mixed for the US Dollar across the three timeframes we examine. Yields have dropped in the belly of the curve on the day after the payrolls miss; yet longer-duration instruments have seen their yields rise over the past week. At the moment, our attention is on the 10-year US Treasury Note yield, as it has traded to the tune of a +0.649 correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY) on a 20-day rolling basis.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: September 5, 2014 Intraday

US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

With US yields moving lower, the US Dollar has seen losses develop across the majors, in particular against the Euro and the Japanese Yen. The EURUSD traded in a 42-pip range around the announcement, trading between $1.2947 and $1.2989. At the time this report was written, EURUSD was seen at $1.2970. USDJPY was struggling as well, having traded off of its daily high of ¥105.71 to ¥104.93.

Read more: Pre-NFP Setups Show Strong Yet Vulnerable USDOLLAR

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES