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GBP/USD Overlooks BoE/GfK Inflation Forecast; Focus Turns To US NFPs

GBP/USD Overlooks BoE/GfK Inflation Forecast; Focus Turns To US NFPs

Edward Hyon,

Talking Points:

  • UK BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12-Months (Aug): 2.8% Actual Vs 2.6% Prior.
  • GBP/USD Remain Relatively Muted After the Economic Release.
  • Looking Ahead US Non-Farm Payroll (Aug): K Actual Vs 230K Estimated; 209K Prior.

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Following yesterday’s Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision, which was a non-event, and no changes to its main policy efforts, BoE’s Inflation Forecast (Next 12-Months) came in at 2.8 percent. This is a higher reading than the prior reporting of 2.6 percent. This data is a survey of 2,000 consumers, conducted by GfK, which asks the candidates for their prediction on prices in the next 12-month horizon. Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, thus must not be completely ignored by forex traders.

The British Pound has been smashed mightily against the US Dollar this past session despite any meaningful event risk. The catalyst may have been the Sterling following the lead of the Euro says DailyFX Chief Currency Strategist John Kicklighter. After the release, GBP/USD remained managed to gain 10 pips but the reaction is sought as relatively muted following the BoE Rate Decision yesterday.

Later today at 12:30 GMT, high-profile USD Employment Figures will be the main focus. The US August Payroll is expecting a print of 230,000 and the Unemployment Rate to edge lower by 0.1 percent to 6.1 percent. However, the focus may be on USD Average Hourly Earnings, which is expected to cross the wires at 2 percent. Any number higher than market expectations will bode-well for the US Dollar.

From a technical standpoint, DailyFX Currency Strategist Ilya Spivak mentions near-term support to rest at 1.6296 (50% Fib Exp.) and resistance at 1.6378 (38.2% Fib Exp.). He remains flat for now as he argues against entering short with prices trading in close proximity to support level and there is an absence of a defined bullish reversal signal.Meanwhile according to DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index, the ratio of long to short positions in the GBP/USD stands at 1.43 as 59 percent of traders are long.

GBP/USD 5 Minute Chart

GBP/USD Overlooks BoE/GfK Inflation Forecast; Focus Turns To US NFPs

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0, Volume Indicator Available Here


Edward Hyon, DailyFX Research Team

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