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US Dollar Surges Higher after US Economy Added +288K Jobs in June

US Dollar Surges Higher after US Economy Added +288K Jobs in June

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- June NFPs beat easily at +288K, Unemployment Rate drops to 6.1%.

- US Dollar runs higher; gains holding as US yields rise post-release.

- US 10-year Treasury Note yield ranges between 2.623% and 2.687% around data.

The June US Nonfarm Payrolls report was as good as market participants could have hoped for. Above trend jobs growth, an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate, and increasing wages all point to the same conclusion: the US economy’s Q1 decline was temporary, and Q2 growth should be much, much stronger.

The fifth consecutive month of plus-200K payroll growth is a positive anecdote for the US economy, as is the fact that the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, its lowest level since September 2008. The household employment survey (which the unemployment rate is computed from) showed the economy added +407K jobs, and the participation rate was unchanged at 62.8%. These are solid internals; there is little indication that the rate of jobs growth should slow abruptly soon.

Here’s the better-than-expected US economic data that’s boosting US yields and the US Dollar ahead of the long holiday weekend:

Read more: Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD for ECB, NFPs

- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JUN): +288K versus +215K expected, from +224K (revised higher from +217K).

- Change in Private Payrolls (JUN): +262K versus +215K expected, from +224K (revised higher from +216K).

- Unemployment rate (JUN): 6.1% versus 6.3 % expected unch.

- Participation Rate (JUN): 62.8% unch.

See the US Dollar economic calendar for Thursday, July 3, 2014.

US Dollar Surges Higher after US Economy Added +288K Jobs in June

US yields have started to rise over the past month, and gains seen in the belly of the yield curve (3Y-7Y) this past week are supporting a modestly stronger US Dollar. Today’s data has resulted in a further firming of the yield environment. This bear steepening of the middle and long portions of the yield curve has proven to be US Dollar positive; greenback strength is contingent upon longer-term yields (10Y+) staying elevated.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: July 3, 2014 Intraday

US Dollar Surges Higher after US Economy Added +288K Jobs in June

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

With US yields moving higher, the US Dollar has seen gains develop across the majors, in particular against the Euro and the Japanese Yen. The USDJPY’s sensitivity to yield changes was on full display, as the pair rallied to a fresh session high of ¥102.22 from ¥101.92 before the release. The EURUSD, in conjunction with ECB President Mario Draghi’s testimony beginning at 12:30 GMT, was sitting at its daily and weekly low of $1.3601 at the time this report was written.

Read more: Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD for ECB, NFPs

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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